Adamu Muhammad Nababa is the pioneer Director of Planning, Research and Statistics (DPRS) in the Kano State Government House. In this interview with
LEO SOBECHI, he, among other issues, raises concerns about President Tinubu’s second-term ambition and its distractions to the real business of meeting the aspirations of Nigerians.
Two years on, what do you make of Nigerian politics and socio-economic development under Tinubu’s Presidency?
Nigeria is a vast country with people who are equally industrious and committed to whatever they decide to do for themselves. When you talk of President Tinubu, he has been an activist. I know him to be somebody who always sits down and plans very well. He had probably been strategising for the presidency for about 10 years, and eventually, he was able to make it. So, whatever one may say for now, he wants to deliver for Nigeria. And we hope for something that would be very useful to the country. However, from experience, we have seen how leaders came with very good motives, but the position or the kind of situation they found themselves in governance became very difficult and they ended up either compromising certain principles or changing the strategy for which they were renowned.
Recently, we saw the case of former President Muhammadu Buhari. He came on a very high note with high expectations, but generally, the best he left with was an average performance. People expected that he would excel, but it didn’t happen based on the kinds of things I was trying to put across. What did he meet when he took over the presidency? What kind of people did he meet, and what kind of people did he bring into governance? Did they all work in harmony, or were they working at cross purposes that made it difficult for him to succeed?
So, in the case of Tinubu, it is more or less the same kind of challenge. Tinubu met the same structure, the same party, the same Nigerians, the same government institutions. What is he doing differently from what the former president did that will either make him succeed or fail?
We know he has already made some strategic alterations in government institutions, politics, and his appointments. So many things have changed. But now, are Nigerians really happy with the measures he has taken? He has assured Nigerians that his plans will work out well in the long run. Perhaps Nigerians are impatient. Or maybe they refuse to believe the president, based on what they have experienced. People are complaining that things are complicated; things are out of place. So, for how long will Nigerians continue to hope?
When you aspire for a position, you tell people that when you become the president, things will change. But we are never told how soon these things will change. Or, how soon will policies take effect – one year, two years, three years or maybe after the first tenure? More or less, Tinubu is already in his second year because, about two years ago, he had already won the election. In the next two years, what will be the issue at stake? Will it be the governance issue that makes life easy for Nigerians, or will it be a campaign for a second tenure? So, these things make it very difficult for the president. He can deny that he is bothered about the second tenure, but all his lieutenants and certain things you can see taking shape are actually geared towards that.
When you look at the issue of the second tenure, I wish our legislators would rethink it. Unless it is too late, there should be a review, because this issue of the first term and the second term not only distracts the executive from performing but also creates so many other problems. Corruption is there. The issue of mutual mistrust among the polity either on religious or tribal grounds. Simply thinking of ‘where will I be next if my principal didn’t make it?’ will make me do everything possible to ensure we get the second term ticket. But, if it is a single tenure, let’s say, instead of eight years, it is maybe six years, and after one tenure, you go.
But the North already champions a campaign, and Mallam Nasir el-Rufai has a specific message that in 2027, another Southerner must be supported, while in NNPP, people like Engr. Buba Galadima says there must be freedom of choice. Where do you think the North stands on this?
For the North to claim that a Northerner must become the president in 2027 is not the best thing to agitate for. We all agree that rotation is not a constitutional issue, but the politicians were able to engage us in this kind of belief, and it worked and stabilised the country. It is all right to come out and say we don’t want Tinubu to go for a second tenure, but let the South give us another candidate. To me, that is fair enough, so the North should respect that unconstitutional but conventional and more mature way of doing things. We are not saying it is constitutional or a must. So, anybody who wants to participate should come out and participate.
Given the makeup of NNPP, Kwankwaso would also like to contest, at least to give him leverage to maintain control of Kano State politics…
He can come out and contest for President under NNPP, but he should not expect everybody in the North to come to NNPP simply because Northerners want a Northern president. It doesn’t work that way. Constitutionally, he can contest and should not be stopped. But, on a general note, there should be the idea that the North can go for a Southern president, whether it is Tinubu or somebody else. But, for someone to come and say no, we must vote Atiku, or we must vote Kwankwaso, or we must vote Bala Mohammed because they are Northerners against Tinubu, it is not fair.
Don’t forget, in 2003, the late Abubakar Rimi came out to contest against Obasanjo in the PDP. You know, it was the PDP that enshrined this gentleman’s agreement. Rimi insisted that nobody could stop him, but eventually, he had to agree and submit to the dictates of the PDP. So, the pattern has always been like that. Even in 2019, when Buhari contested for a second tenure, there were some contestants from the North; Atiku contested against Buhari, but because Nigeria and Northerners were working on that unwritten charter or consensus, Buhari was returned, and Atiku went to the Supreme Court. In the end, it didn’t work out for him.
So, even now, Atiku can still come out and contest and Kwankwaso can come out and contest, but having succeeded in 2023, it is left for the APC to do its homework to address the grievances of people, whether in the North or the South so that they can win back the second tenure.
el-Rufai told a little group that when Tinubu was looking for his running mate, he went to the North-East and shunned the North-West, arguing that Buhari was serving out his eight years. el-Rufai’s agenda is that it should be any Southerner but Tinubu, saying that the South-West has had its turn. Do you think this conversation will win the North?
No, it won’t because, in Nigeria, nobody has ever been dashed with the presidency slot. No region will sit back and expect the presidency on a platter, because of national cohesion or whatever. For the North-West, in the North-East, or in the South-South, will just be given the position of president. It never happened, and it’s not even the best thing to do. So, if el-Rufai is pushing for something like that, he will not get it right.
The issue is, South-East and South-South, do they have a formidable candidate that everybody in Nigeria can buy? No matter how much you want to appease a region, they must also be able to do something by themselves. If you take the South-South, former President Goodluck Jonathan served. But you cannot fault the process of his emergence. He got to the point that there was no way you could obstruct him from the presidency. Unless the South-South can do something towards that, they should forget it.
And for the South-East, they have Peter Obi. Unless Peter Obi behaves properly as a Nigerian, he will find it difficult to scale through. Don’t mind the vote he got in 2023 because 70 per cent of the votes came by playing the religious card. And that will not win you an election, whether you are a Christian or a Muslim. Even in the case of Tinubu, the total vote that gave him the presidency was not up to the 12.5 million that Buhari got in 2011 and lost to Jonathan. So, this tells you that the vote comes elsewhere.
And, notwithstanding the issue of religion, many people make the mistake that Buhari was elected because he is a Muslim or he is a Northerner. These were not the only credentials of President Buhari. He got some strategic votes from the South, which helped him win the election. So, if Peter Obi is coming to the North, he needs a credible politician who pulls the crowd in the real sense, bringing votes from both Muslims and Christians from the North. He also needs the votes of Christians and non-Christians in the South.
Between the Bauchi State governor, Senator Bala Mohammed, and Ibrahim Shekarau, the former Kano State governor, who do you think has more clout or acceptability in the North?
I will go for Shekarau.
Some critics say that the President’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State is a sign that he wants to take his second term by force. Do you think there’s any correlation?
I didn’t look at it that way, although I support the state of emergency. It is just the kind of influence you have with politicians with no cross-border influence. They feel they are just like the almighty. This is how Mr Wike behaves. And that behaviour is not good for Rivers or Nigerian politics. Because all along, all his politics have been aggressive, bold, rash, and feeling you can do whatever you want. And I don’t consider him the type of politician that Tinubu should associate with.
He has become like a stamp on Tinubu, holding the position of a minister and simultaneously saying the governor in his state must do his bidding. It shouldn’t be condoned. Even if you install somebody, modesty demands that you give him a level of independence to operate as a leader of the people. But it will not work when you want to control him and expect people to respect him.
Recently, the President endorsed the zoning of APC National Chairmanship to the North-West, a tacit confirmation that Alh. Umar Ganduje will continue. In the predictable clash of political interests between Ganduje and Kwankwaso in Kano, where do you think the pendulum will tilt?
Well, that is a very tricky question. And we can only be very straight as well because Ganduje and Kwankwaso are birds of the same feather. Ganduje has committed everything you can accuse Kwankwaso of. And everything you can accuse Ganduje, Kwankwaso has committed because they have been the best of friends since 1999 when they reconciled and clinched the Governorship of Kano as governor and deputy governor. Nobody knew what they do in a closed session. So, when they broke up, everybody started insulting the other.
So, to me, when it comes to election, under the present condition for the governorship of Kano State, I assure you that in a normal election, Kwankwaso will still clinch the governorship seat. Why? Simple! The APC in Kano is doing many things wrong because the APC has everything; they have all the supporters.
But they are not very strategic. They allow things to scatter anyhow because the membership is not so much intact. They are not aligned together. They don’t even know themselves. They don’t have a working agenda.
All that APC can do is come together, know themselves, know what to do, how to do it, and when. That is what Kwankwaso has. And that is why it isn’t easy to take Kano from Kwankwaso.
