Nigerian crude settled near $68 a barrel amid ongoing dynamics in the global economy.
Oil prices surged following reports that new U.S. intelligence suggests Israel is preparing for a possible attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Brent crude rose above $66 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surged as much as 5 percent before reversing gains.
Recent market movements indicate that Nigerian crude is expected to settle higher on Thursday, as global oil traders adopt an increasingly bullish outlook.
Oil has remained volatile since last week due to conflicting headlines about the outcome of Iran-U.S. nuclear talks. Any progress in those negotiations could result in more barrels returning to a market already projected to be oversupplied later in the year.
However, an Israeli attack would likely stall negotiations and further destabilize the Middle East, which supplies around one-third of the world’s crude oil. As long as the talks appear deadlocked, crude is expected to maintain a risk premium.
The CNN report also temporarily boosted traditional currency havens, including the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, though those gains were later pared back. The U.S. Department of Defense and the National Security Council did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Israel has long considered attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. A key consideration is the extent of destruction required for a successful strike that would significantly impair Iran’s nuclear program. Previous plans were reportedly discouraged by remarks from President Joe Biden following last year’s tensions between the two nations.
OPEC and its allies have announced plans to release stored oil back into the market. While U.S. shale oil production is currently below its peak, it could expand—but not sustainably at prices hovering around $50 a barrel, according to the CEO of ConocoPhillips on Tuesday.
This week, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, reiterated his belief that renewed negotiations with the U.S. are unlikely to yield meaningful results. Those speculating that WTI prices could drop toward $40—the level seen as a “sweet spot” for lifting sanctions on Iran’s oil exports—may not bear much of the blame if that outcome materializes.
Despite sanctions from the United States and its allies, including the UK and the EU, Iran has continued to export crude oil. Goldman Sachs reports that Tehran has room to increase its supply, with Iranian crude output rising by approximately one million barrels per day in recent years.
Nigerian crude oil production posts deficit in 2025
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) for the first four months of 2025, Nigeria produced 200.08 million barrels of crude oil—falling short of the projected 247.2 million barrels. This represents an 18.7 percent production deficit for the period.
- Crude oil remains Nigeria’s main foreign exchange earner, accounting for the bulk of its export revenue. The Nigerian economy is highly sensitive to global oil price fluctuations and production challenges, given its heavy reliance on oil exports.
- In response to these vulnerabilities, the Nigerian government has implemented reforms to improve tax administration and harmonize foreign exchange rates, aiming to increase federal revenue from approximately N6.8 trillion in 2023 to N12.4 trillion in 2024.
However, the World Bank has warned that Nigeria’s 2025 budget is based on “overly ambitious revenue assumptions,” which could result in a larger-than-expected fiscal deficit. These concerns are heightened by the sharp decline in global oil prices since early April, driven by fears of slowing global economic growth after former President Donald Trump announced “reciprocal” U.S. tariffs.
Compounding the issue, Nigeria’s crude oil production declined by an estimated 46.4 million barrels between January and April 2025—a major threat to the viability of the country’s 2025 budget.
