Despite Nigeria’s worsening economic crisis and lean revenue inflow, the country spends billions conducting avoidable by-elections. That contradiction has elicited a search for alternative approaches in the country’s electoral system, SODIQ OMOLAOYE reports.
How can a nation grappling with high inflation continue to organise expensive by-elections that guzzle billions of naira? This posed a problem for some stakeholders recently, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
While describing the attendant cost of by-elections as an avoidable waste of resources, the stakeholders said there was an urgent need for the country to evolve a more efficient system for filling vacant legislative seats.
It was gathered that currently, there are pending by-elections in two senatorial, five federal and nine state constituencies. These by-elections will cover 16 constituencies across 12 states, which are home to over 3.5 million registered voters, spread across 359 Registration Areas and 7,003 polling units.
However, it was learnt that INEC is awaiting the disbursement of funds from its N140 billion 2025 budget, which was approved by the National Assembly to enable the commission to conduct the pending elections. These polls, it was gathered, became due following the death of former occupants or the voluntary resignation by some of them to take up executive positions.
But, checks by The Guardian showed that between 2020 and 2024, INEC has conducted at least 37 by-elections across various constituencies with a combined registered voter of 9,352,029.
In 2020, for instance, the commission conducted 16 by-elections. Lagos East Senatorial District had the highest number of registered voters at 1,343,448, followed by the Plateau South Senatorial District, with 671,209 voters. The Cross River North Senatorial District recorded 429,488 registered voters, while the Bayelsa Central Senatorial District had 418,109 Imo North Senatorial District (389,245), Kosofe II State Constituency, Lagos (280,363), Bayelsa West Senatorial District (234,649), Obudu State Constituency, Cross River (128,493), Bakori State Constituency, Katsina (123,837), and Bakura State Constituency, Zamfara (92,697).
Others include Ibaji State Constituency, Kogi (76,575), Isi-Uzo State Constituency, Enugu (72,289), Nasarawa Central State Constituency (71,919), Patigi State Constituency (57,093), Bayo State Constituency, Borno (48,319), and Nganzai State Constituency, Borno (34,871).
Then, in 2021, INEC conducted six by-elections. Aba-North/Aba South had 496,628 registered voters, making it the largest by-election of the year. Lere Federal Constituency followed with 231,532 voters, while Gwaram Federal Constituency had 133,199. Isoko North recorded 128,566, closely followed by Sabon Gari State Constituency with (128,051) Kafin Hausa State Constituency (61,413).
For 2022, the commission organised six by-elections, which included North/Bassa Federal Constituency (599,282), Akure North/Akure South Federal Constituency, Ondo State (364,538), Ogoja/Yala Federal Constituency, Cross River State (193,618) and Ngor-Okpala State Constituency, Imo State (94,118).
In addition, INEC conducted nine by-elections in 2024. The polls were conducted in Yobe East Senatorial District (519,681), Ebonyi South Senatorial Seat (484,259), Jalingo/Yorro/Zing Federal Constituency, Taraba State (374,278), Chikun State Constituency, Kaduna State (334,071).
Others were Yauri/Shanga/Ngaski Federal Constituency, Kebbi State (227,406) and Akoko North East/Akoko North West Federal Constituency, Ondo State (171,491), Surulere 1 Federal Constituency, Lagos State (140,377), Guma State Constituency, Benue State (63,529) and Chibok State Constituency, Borno State (55,498).
There has been no clear official record of how much was spent on these elections, making it nearly impossible for Nigerians to track the huge financial and human resources expended in the various exercises.
In its 2023 General Election Report, INEC said it proposed N355 billion for the conduct of the elections, but the sum of N313.4 billion was released as of September 2023, leaving a shortfall of N41.6 billion.
The commission said it arrived at the amount (N355 billion) based on the Average Cost per Registered Voter Index (COVI), for the 93,469,008 registered voters in Nigeria, which it put at US$6.72 per voter, which translates to N3,801, in domestic currency.
Further in its report, INEC said the US$6.72 per voter is well within the internationally acceptable Average Cost per Registered Voter (ACRV) of $4 to $8, saying that it is deemed adequate for the conduct of elections in transitional democracies like Nigeria.
Checks revealed that the ACRV for the 2023 general election is less than the actual cost of $9.62 and $7.38 per voter for the 2015 and 2019 general elections, respectively, and is deemed very reasonable in comparison to the cost per voter in other transitional democracies such as Ghana and Kenya.
With a cost of $6.72 per voter and a combined registered voting population of 9,352,029, the total expenditure for the 37 by-elections amounted to $62,845,634.88, which, at an exchange rate of N1,474.78 per dollar, translates to N92.68 billion.
Efforts to get official figures on how much has been expended on by-elections from INEC were unsuccessful. INEC National Commissioner and Chairman of Information and Voter Education, Sam Olumekun, didn’t respond to calls, SMS and WhatsApp messages.
But, according to Election Network, a platform that monitors elections, Nigeria, since its return to democratic rule in 1999, stands out as the country with the most expensive elections in Africa. It noted that the amounts allocated for elections kept increasing steadily, from less than 2 billion in 1999 to hundreds of billions of naira in 2023.
N355 billion cost outlay for 2023 polls
Expressing concerns at a recent meeting with members of the Inter-party Advisory Council (IPAC) in Abuja, INEC Chairperson, Prof Mahmood Yakubu, lamented that the unpredictability and strain caused by these elections are not only unbudgeted, but also divert the Commission’s resources.
Nonetheless, while Nigeria is throwing billions into by-elections, other countries have found cheaper and more efficient ways to fill legislative vacancies.
Despite repeated advocacy by election stakeholders, led by INEC, past electoral reforms have been unable to present clear and acceptable alternatives, leaving Nigerians to foot the bill.
For instance, in South Africa and Germany, parliamentary vacancies are filled by the next candidate on the party list. Canada and the United Kingdom use appointment systems in some cases, while Australia employs casual vacancies, where the ruling party nominates a replacement.
Even the United States, despite its reliance on special elections, limits their frequency by allowing gubernatorial appointments for Senate vacancies.
Observers and experts worry that as the country faces a wave of by-elections, how long it will keep spending billions on an avoidable problem becomes an issue.
Indeed, with $6.72 spent per voter in past elections, the cost of Nigeria’s by-elections will continue to rise, especially with 14 more vacancies yet to be filled.
Given the instability in the value of the naira, the financial burden of these elections is expected to be even higher, which will further be a strain on public resources at a time when the economy is already under pressure.
Although stakeholders are yet to reach a compromise on a cost-effective alternative to by-elections, there are indications that INEC is backing a situation where political parties would simply conduct fresh primaries to replace vacant seats, rather than holding by-elections.
Sources at a meeting between the leadership of political parties and INEC that held on January 22, told The Guardian that the issue was keenly debated during the parley, but there was no definite agreement on the specific recommendations that would be presented to the National Assembly.
Also, at a recent meeting with media executives, the INEC Chairman revealed that, beyond the excessive cost, by-elections rarely change anything, noting that the same party that won the original election almost always wins the by-election.
Yakubu noted that in some cases, elections are even uncontested, with stakeholders simply agreeing to allow the late lawmaker’s family member to complete the tenure, yet INEC still mobilises resources for an election where no real voting takes place.
Addressing concerns over the cost of by-elections, former INEC National Commissioner, Prof. Lai Olurode, told The Guardian that while democracy is expensive, it should not be compromised for financial reasons. He remarked that INEC must not allow any element of arbitrariness in an election, stressing that while cost considerations are valid, they should not override democratic principles.
The Professor of Sociology proposed that in cases where a candidate dies shortly after an election, a rerun should be considered, noting that, as is done in other countries, if the term is near completion, it may not be necessary to conduct fresh polls.
“Political parties represent ideologies rather than just individuals. While candidates are the faces of political parties, the votes they receive are also a reflection of the party’s influence.
“Any method of replacement used to fill a vacant legislative seat would mean short-changing the democratic process. INEC and the National Assembly should consult more on the matter,” he stated.
Chairman of the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC), Yusuf Dantalle, threw his weight behind the position of the electoral umpire, saying there is a need to reduce the financial burden of by-elections in Nigeria.
He maintained that many by-elections are unnecessary and only serve to drain public funds, noting that in cases where an elected official leaves office, whether due to appointment, resignation, or death, the political party that won the seat should be allowed to nominate a replacement.
But, Acting Chairman of the National Rescue Movement (NRM), Chinedu Obi, echoed Olurode and rejected the idea that political parties should directly nominate replacements for vacant seats instead of holding costly by-elections.
He stated: “Democracy is about processes and procedures. If someone is elected, Nigerians voted for that person specifically, not for their party to replace them without another vote.
“I will rather call for the strengthening of Nigeria’s electoral process, pushing for electronic voting and conducting all elections on the same day to reduce costs.”
For an election expert, Austin Aigbe, reforming electoral laws to reduce the high cost of elections in Nigeria is more important at this time, as the country is facing enormous economic challenges. He expressed dismay that the country is borrowing excessively, yet spending over 300 billion on elections every four years, adding, “This expenditure is unsustainable and must be addressed through legal reforms.”
Aigbe argued that since Nigeria does not recognize independent candidacy, elections are fundamentally won by political parties, not individuals, even as he pointed out that to ensure fairness, instead of simply appointing a replacement, parties should conduct fresh primaries to determine the new candidate.
