There is no doubt that President Tinubu’s determination is to win the heart of the Kano State electorate at the 2027 poll. But, the crisis of
ambitions, clash of egos and management of big players like Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin and the National Chairman, Dr Abdulahi Ganduje, are some of the knots the President needs to untie in the move to bring back the godfather of Kano politics, Rabiu Kwankwaso, to APC. LEO SOBECHI and MURTALA ADEWALE report.
Whether as fiction, fact or fable, the much-speculated defection of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the Presidential candidate of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) in the 2023 general election, has provoked a fresh twist to the political dynamics of Kano ahead of 2027.
The unfolding calculations may not necessarily spike any big surprise, especially for those familiar with Northern politics. However, pundits believe that Nigerian politicians would rather prefer to sacrifice loyalty to remain relevant.
For the Kwankwasiyya movement, the group has shown strong strength and control of the Kano political landscape with a massive grassroots structure that intimidates their political rivals. Leading a large number of redcap-wearing loyalists, Kwankwaso has proved to be a formidable force. That force may explain why the Presidency seems disposed to sacrifice anything possible to reclaim the contemporary godfather of Kano politics.
Although available indicators suggest that the APC leader, President Bola Tinubu, may go the extra mile to win the heart and soul of Kwankwaso to solidify his ambition for 2027, the question on the lips of many, is how would the President navigate the power play between Kwankwaso and his erstwhile political godson Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, who controls the party at the centre.
Could it be that the President knows that Ganduje’s trial in court can serve as a ready excuse to dispense with him if he tries to obstruct the course of Kwankwaso’s return? Or that both former political allies could be offered ministerial appointments to ensure that they remain answerable to the same Alhaji rather than one being boss to the other?
These are still in the realms of speculation, but like the Americans are wont to say, all cards are still on the table. But the question that some insiders are asking is, what would Kwankwaso’s acceptance of a possible appointment as Defence Minister mean for his godfather status in Kano politics?
Then, in the event that that possibility becomes reality, would Ganduje accept to serve as Minister of Agriculture or Special Duties, as some are hinting? Would the current Defence Minister, Abubakar Badaru, become APC National Chairman without his home state governor, Namadi, mobilising his brother progressive governors to oppose him?
Audio defection
Ganduje, it was that first hit the front pages of dailies with the news of the impending return of Kwankwaso and his lieutenants in the Kwankwasiyya movement to APC, during which he described the NNPP as dead wood that cannot flower or bear fruit.
Speaking when he played host to members of the Tinubu Support Group (TSG) at the APC National Secretariat, Abuja, the national chairman had said: “NNPP is dead. And it will soon be buried; very, very soon. I’m looking at where we will bury the body. The coffin has already been constructed. What remains now is to dig the grave. Already, they are digging the grave.
“The so-called NNPP national leader, he too, if he says after losing everyone, he wants to come back to us, we will welcome him, because he is coming back home.”
Regardless of those verbal swipes aimed at his former principal, those conversant with the intense political rivalry between the two gladiators know that Ganduje might have also succumbed to powerful interests that want Kwankwaso back in the APC fold.
Observers are wondering whether Ganduje was merely acting out the scripts of Abuja, to leave all doors open for Kwankwaso’s possible return. Could it be that Kawu Sumaila’s decision to rush back to APC was in a bid to bring himself free from Kwankwaso’s influence or as a result of the NNPP’s former presidential candidate’s vacillation to move?
In all these moves, Ganduje seems to be watching President Tinubu’s body language, which also indicates that the President was determined to settle for Kwankwaso and his massive Kwankwasiyya group as a big catch to diffuse the Atiku Abubakar political coalition forces.
Sources close to the NNPP leader said that the concessions being made to Kwankwaso must be huge, stressing that the immediate implications of his (Kwankwaso’s) return to APC are a reduction of his political clout from godfather to political appendage to a fellow godfather.
Both Kwankwaso and President Tinubu belong to the class of 1999 governors, although the former Kano State governor failed his “promotional election” in 2003, only to return for a carryover in 2011.
The outcome of the 2023 general elections, in which Kwankwaso’s political underling, Kabir Abba Yusuf, beat Ganduje’s surrogate to clinch the Kano gubernatorial seat, must have convinced President Tinubu that the head of Kwankwasiyya Movement is well rooted in Kano.
Also, with an unassailable tally of 997,279 votes against 517,341 votes, Kwankwaso bested the President in the February 5, 2023, presidential poll. That may explain the rush to shop for Kwankwaso ahead of 2027.
Endless anticipation
The rumour about Dr Kwankwaso’s defection plan is not of a recent origin. Similar speculation of possible collaboration with President Tinubu and the APC stirred up public curiosity shortly after the 2023 polls. After reportedly visiting Tinubu, then President-elect, in France, it was said that Kwankwaso’s name had been pencilled for a ministerial slot.
But the entire projection crashed due to what was said to be a hard-to-fulfil conditionality set by the former presidential runner. But analysts said the dynamics have changed. First, some argue that Kwankwaso would not hesitate to accept any sure offer that guarantees his political control of Kano politics.
Secondly, with the crisis rattling NNPP and the mass exodus of Kwankwaso’s lieutenants to APC, it is suggested that the battle may be too hot for the Kwankwasiyya leader to overcome.
To compound the odds, the Boniface Aniebonam-led faction of NNPP has successfully poached the Kwankwasiyya ranks. Many big names in NNPP, including the ex-Secretary to the State Government, Dr Abdullahi Baffa Bichi, Senator Abdulrahman Kawu Sumaila, representing Kano South, former speaker Kano State House of Assembly and current member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Kabir Rurum, are parting ways with Kwankwaso.
In the event that Kwankwaso ultimately re-joins APC, he would be leading all his allies that jumped ship ahead of time through Governor Abba. But, by that singular desperate move, he must have subjected his political future to the whims of President Tinubu, no matter what agreements were entered into.
Similarly, Ganduje and Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin, would have come under the political control of Gida-Gida, who would automatically become the party leader in the state. That way, Barau’s gubernatorial ambition could be put on hold for the governor to sail into a second term.
Would the Deputy President of the Senate, Jibrin, repeat the 2015 switch, when ex-Governor Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau had to yield his space for Kwankwaso to assume leadership immediately he joined the party?
To be or not?
A close confidant of Dr Kwankwaso, Engineer Buba Galadima, told The Guardian that it was unthinkable that the former NNPP Presidential flag bearer would join a party that has Ganduje as national chairman, stressing that those well-meaning individuals shrank from associating with the APC because of the national chairman.
But Ahmad Mohammed, a Kano-based Public Affairs analyst, said Kwankwaso’s return to the APC would add value to the ruling party, even as he expressed worry over the likely consequences of entrusting the party structure in the hands of Kwankwaso.
He stated: “Kwankwaso’s return would be a plus to APC, because he’s a true politician with strong followers. Whether you like it or not, he would add value to APC as the movement he’s leading has gained widespread dominance and is still expanding beyond the sphere of the Northern region.
“But, on the other hand, the challenge that will crop up is the internal crisis between Kwankwaso and Ganduje, especially because of the domineering nature of Kwankwaso. We have seen how he dominated and even sent Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau out of the APC when he came from the PDP.
“Unless Kwankwaso turns out to be a changed person, respect Ganduje as APC chairman; otherwise, the crisis between him and Ganduje will resurface. Another concern is that Ganduje, as the National Chairman of the APC, has six months to complete his tenure. Are we likely to see Tinubu handing over the structure to Kwankwaso? If that eventually happens, it may lead to another devastating crisis.”
To a Professor of Political Science from Bayero University, Kamilu Sani Fagge, if Kwankwaso eventually returns to the ruling party, it may lessen the political tension between him and the APC national chairman, Ganduje.
“For Kwankwaso and Ganduje to remain under the same roof may be akin to a cold war in which both gladiators would seek to outsmart one another, making sure their camp overwhelmed the other,” he noted.
The university lecturer remarked that defections by Nigerian politicians are solely propelled by their desire to win elections or to shield themselves from unnecessary victimization by the ruling party.
“The rumour is that Kwankwaso is going back to a party he was part of before he left. Many of his strong followers would move with him, and in one way or another, that would lessen the tension between him and Ganduje.
“And, let me say that the President’s overall interest in securing Kano votes may also backfire if care is not taken. Unless they are able to address the economic tension in the country, yearning and aspirations of Nigerians, the President may be building a castle in the air, because people are not happy,” Professor Fagge surmised.
How President Tinubu would manage the internal bickering and political ambition in Kano after securing his presidential return will also determine the relevance of the APC after the 2027 elections. For instance, the Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin’s overwhelming support for human capital development and contributions to APC’s growth could be traced to his ambition to occupy the Kano African House.
Apart from investing millions of naira in foreign and local scholarships in Kano, Malia, as he is fondly called, distributed a large number of vehicles and motorcycles to officers and men of the Nigerian Police Force to strengthen operations against crimes.
“So far, the one person who has shown serious interest in becoming governor of Kano is DSP Barau Jibril. But it’s a matter of political settlement which the president can easily handle. The president can prevail on Barau to allow Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf to do a second tenure and offer him an alternative option.
“Don’t forget, Barau still has the golden opportunity to retain his senatorial ticket, be re-elected as DSP or even be elevated to the position of President of the Senate. I don’t think that is difficult for the President to handle, and for Barau himself, I don’t think he has anything to lose. He would still retain his power, influence, resources and position. So, Barau Jibrin can be pacified,” Mohammed added.
