If the myriad of endorsements from across political party lines is anything to go by, Ekiti State governor, Biodun Oyebanji, is set to break the consecutive second-term re-election jinx next year. While the incumbent has been assured by stakeholders within and outside his All Progressives Congress (APC), including leaders of opposition parties, the possible opposition from the Presidency remains a big hurdle, SEYE OLUMIDE and AYODELE AFOLABI report.
The 2026 off-cycle gubernatorial election in Ekiti State holds out great possibilities. First, it would demonstrate how far public endorsements can go to mirror voter preferences. Then, the election would show whether the sins of a father can be visited on the son.
It is common knowledge that Governor Biodun Oyebanji, a former Secretary to the Ekiti State Government, owes his ascendance to the office to the patronage of his predecessor, Dr Kayode John Fayemi. APC insiders also recall that during the build-up to the contest for the party’s presidential ticket in 2022, Fayemi reluctantly stepped down for President Bola Tinubu, when his northern backers and fellow governors queued behind the current President.
Therefore, watchers of Ekiti State politics are expressing divergent views about the likelihood that the 2022 presidential contest in the APC could impact the 2026 gubernatorial poll in the state.
History of extraneous considerations
Since Nigeria’s return to democratic governance in 1999, Ekiti State has displayed a unique pattern of gubernatorial elections. Although many insist that extraneous factors usually determine the outcome of the polls, political style in the Land of Honour and Integrity never gives room for any form of one-party dominance.
It has always been a dingdong affair between the two major political parties – the incumbent ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the major opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). No godfather holds a permanent seat in all the contests, nor has any incumbent governor spent two consecutive terms.
Although former governors Ayo Fayose of PDP and Kayode Fayemi of APC have had second terms, they had them intermittently.
In 1999, former governor Niyi Adedayo was elected on the platform of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD); he was defeated by Fayose of PDP in 2003. Fayose had his first term truncated in 2006 when former President Olusegun Obasanjo suspended him for six months and also declared a state of emergency in the state. The late General Tunji Olurin was appointed as the sole administrator of the state till 2007.
Segun Oni was elected governor of the state in May 2007 but his tenure was terminated by the Appeal Court in 2009, which brought in Tunji Opeyemi as acting governor till 2010 when the court declared Fayemi as winner of the 2007 gubernatorial polls.
The former Minister of Mines and Steel Development started his four-year tenure afresh in October 2010 to 2014 but failed to secure a second term. He was defeated by Fayose, who was re-elected eight years after he was suspended.
Fayose also failed to hand over power to his preferred successor, Professor Olusola Eleka in 2018. Eleka, who was Fayose’s deputy from 2014, was allegedly imposed by his boss as the PDP gubernatorial candidate during the party’s primary but was defeated by Fayemi in the 2018 governorship poll.
Fayemi, however, broke the jinx in 2022 as he successfully handed over power to his preferred candidate and incumbent governor, Abiodun Oyebanji.
The incumbent governor defeated former Governor Oni, who had left the PDP to contest on the platform of Social Democratic Party (SDP) and also the candidate of PDP, Bisi Kolawole, in the Ekiti 2022 gubernatorial election, which made Fayemi, the first incumbent governor in Ekiti to successfully handed over power to a successor on the same political platform.
But, as the first term of Governor Oyebanji will lapse next year, there are speculations about whether the incumbent governor will break the jinx of having his second term consecutively.
One of the disadvantages of the intermittent re-elections of governors in the state and the inability of the past incumbents to hand over the baton of power to their preferred candidate is the absence of continuity of developmental projects. This has posed a big minus for the people of Ekiti in terms of infrastructural growth.
Fayemi, during his return from 2018 to 2022, was magnanimous enough to complete some of the things Fayose couldn’t complete while he was in power. To the credit of the former Minister, he never looked away from any project embarked on by any of his predecessors.
However, since Oyebanji took office in 2022, his approach was to unite all his predecessors and political stakeholders, irrespective of their political affiliations, including Fayose of the PDP and Oni of the SDP. Oni, who returned to the APC, has also announced his exit from active politics.
The incumbent governor also extended his hand of fellowship to Otunba Adebayo, such that he is gradually changing the history of acrimonious politics in Ekiti.
He has been endorsed by major stakeholders within the APC and other opposition parties in the state.
Oyebanji’s style in Ekiti has silenced the voices of opposition, a development that sharply contrasts the previous electioneering processes in the state.
Some analysts confided in The Guardian that the incumbent governor has systematically rearranged the volatile nature of Ekiti politics into a serene atmosphere where opposition leaders and members fraternize as if they are one.
But that been said, Oyebanji cannot rest on his oars or fold his arms going by the insinuation that the antagonists he is not seeing within the Ekiti chapter of APC, or in the opposition parties, may likely come from the presidency and President Bola Tinubu, who is allegedly not favorably disposed to the incumbent’s re-election next year.
Some insiders in Aso Rock Villa have hinted that President Tinubu may likely not support Oyebanji to earn the return ticket of the party, not necessarily because the governor had any issue with the presidency but because of Fayemi, his mentor who is perceived of supporting coalition of opposition politicians against the second term aspiration of President Tinubu in 2027.
Fayemi, who is perceived as the political mentor of Oyebanji, has been alleged to be planning to align with the coalition politicians who don’t want Mr President’s re-election in 2027.
But Fayemi has persistently dismissed the widely reported insinuation and said he remains a ruling party member. He also denied doing anything to undermine the second-term aspiration of Mr President.
To also change the negative narrative, two prominent members of APC, Chief Ayo Afolabi and Mr Wale Oshun, also dismissed the saying that the presidency may work against Oyebanji’s re-election in Ekiti.
The duo also said it’s not true that Fayemi is collaborating with a coalition of politicians aiming to oust President Tinubu in 2027, not to mention the presidency wanting to use that to frustrate Oyebanji’s second term.
Ekiti State APC spokesman, Segun Dipe, denied that the party or the presidency had concluded arrangements to deny Governor Oyebanji a return ticket next year due to his closeness to former Governor Fayemi.
Effete opposition
All the same, while the propaganda of possible Presidential denial of support for Oyebanji may have been put to rest, the lacklustre opposition parties leave no doubt that the incumbent governor will get his second term come 2026.
The major opposition parties, such as the SDP, the Action Democratic Party (ADC), Labour Party (LP) and All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), which were visible during the 2022 governorship and 2023 elections, have gone under.
The SDP was a product of protest from the alleged shoddy conduct of the PDP’s governorship primary election held on January 26 2022, which one of the aspirants, Oni, felt shortchanged. A few months before the election, Oni joined the SDP and pulled his supporters from both the PDP and the APC.
In fact, his deputy governorship candidate, Ladi Owolabi, was a notable APC member. On the other hand, several chieftains of PDP who are aggrieved with Fayose’s style of leadership quickly jumped ship on February 5, 2022, to SDP.
Following this movement. There was an upset when the 2022 governorship poll was announced, as a ragtag SDP came second. Although this performance was not carried into the 2023 presidential election because the SDP candidate didn’t do well in Ekiti, the APC candidate won the majority vote, followed by the PDP candidate. In the state Assembly Election, the SDP won two seats out of 26, while the APC won the remaining 24, leaving the PDP with nothing.
However, against expectations that Oni would sustain the tempo and nurture the party for the future, members of his SDP, including his running mate, have since left for their former parties.
As for the ADC led by Kemi Elebute-Halle, the only female governorship candidate in the 2022 election has also decamped to the APC in October 2024. She left the ADP with all the State Executive Members of the party.
Other Political parties like APGA, New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Labour Party, up till now, lack a visible structure in the state. They are seasonal parties that surface whenever the governorship election is held and return to their shelves immediately after.
Unlike in the 2018 governorship election, when no fewer than 23 aspirants slugged it out with ex-governor Kayode Fayemi at the shadow poll, events unfolding within the APC showed that Oyebanji appears to be navigating a seamless trajectory towards securing the ruling party’s ticket for the governorship election.
If the trajectory of the politics in Ekiti State, particularly what happened in 2003 between Adebayo and Fayose, and what was witnessed between Oni and Fayemi in 2007, one cannot but be tempted to conclude that Oyebanji’s initial approach to unite all political leaders and Ekiti elite, may paved a sure path for his re-election next year.
Negotiated re-election
Another factor that seems to be working in Oyebanji’s favour is the negotiations said to be going on among the incumbent and other elected officers in the state. At present, the ruling party controls the three senatorial seats, all House of Representatives and State Assembly seats and the councils. This also gave him an extra edge over would-be competitors in the race next year
In a bid to dispel the rumour that the presidency could work against Oyebanji’s return, while Fayemi recently led Ekiti North stakeholders to endorse Oyebanji, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele, Senate Majority Leader, also led Ekiti Central senatorial district APC leaders and stakeholders to tender continuity affirmation to the governor. Bamidele is seen as a very close ally to the presidency.
During a recent stakeholders’ meeting held in Ado-Ekiti, the Ekiti Central APC leaders gave the governor a clean bill of health for what they said is his sterling performance. The endorsement comes on the heels of similar declarations from Ekiti South APC leaders and professional bodies, including the Nigerian Union of Teachers.
However, looking at the cost implication of some of these endorsements, some believe it may come at a great cost in the form of give and take between the governor and some of the leaders, particularly the lawmakers.
As if buttressing the above assertion, Bamidele had tactically told Oyebanji to take cognisance of the state’s elected officials at the federal level, who would use their positions to attract federal projects.
The Ekiti Central lawmaker tactically enjoined Oyebanji not to shift the goal post after he might have gotten his second term next year. He indirectly said the onus would now be on the governor to support all elected officials working for his (Oyebanji’s) return in 2027.
The implication is that Bamidele subtly negotiated for an automatic ticket for the current federal lawmakers by urging the governor to respect the ranking. Although he did not hinge his endorsement of the lawmakers on the return ticket directly, that might have been implied in his comment and how it was presented.
For Fayose, who is regarded as the leader of the major opposition PDP in Ekiti, to endorse the APC governor may not have been without some concessions. It was learnt that the former governor used the opportunity to negotiate for his associates, especially members of his political family called Osoko Political Assembly (OPA), to get both elective and appointive positions in 2026 and beyond. The ex-governor is also said to be backing the governor so that his son could get the Ekiti Central 1 Federal Constituency seat in the House of Representatives, a position he had earlier contested for in 2023 and lost.
