Votes from Kano State are some of the most impactful, often influencing the outcome of presidential polls. The 2023 presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and the All Progressives Congress (APC) National Chairman, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, will use the 2027 ballot as the final test of political clout, LEO SOBECHI reports.
Of the four Kadashian States – Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Kano – in the North-West, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s poll numbers in Kano State helped to beef up his winning spree in the 2023 presidential poll. But, less than two years to the 2027 election cycle, the president knows that he needs extra effort to perform as well or even better than in the past election.
The President’s recent decision to endorse the ceding of the position of All Progressives Congress (APC) national chairman to the North-West was a shrewd strategy aimed at guaranteeing the continued stay of the immediate past Kano State governor, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, in that position.
Among the big four, Kano stands out in terms of registered voters and turnout at elections. Ganduje’s chairmanship of APC is, therefore, a calculated attempt to ensure a possible repeat of the 2023 voting pattern, as well as bragging rights for APC to contest with the national leader of NNPP for the available ballots.
Recently, a kite was flown suggesting that a big political move was in the offing, involving the possible return of the leader of the Kwankwasiyya political grouping in the state, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, to the APC.
Both the APC national chairman, Ganduje and Kano State APC continue to weave defection narratives around Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, and there is no tangible evidence to buttress such a likelihood.
Addressing a press conference in Kano last weekend, the state chairman, Alhaji Abdullahi Abbas, disclosed that the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and APC, have been winning back some estranged former members as well as opposition politicians back to the party.
Specifically, Abbas declared: “Of recent, the party’s attention has been drawn to speculations of the impending decamping of the leader of the expelled faction of the NNPP, Senator Kwankwaso, into the party.
“This is a welcome development, especially given the fact that the APC remains his last political refuge as he has successfully destroyed his relations with all other political groupings in the country.”
While explaining that APC ward chapter chairmen have been mandated to open registers for new defectors irrespective of their political and social status, the state chairmen advised that all those wishing to join APC should go to their respective wards and register.
Adopting an ambivalent tone, Abbas stated: “The party was fully aware that some people were desperate to join the APC. This is because they have scuttled their political goodwill and have become political lepers in the national scheme of things, and are looking to the APC for political relevance.
“To avoid doubt, let me emphasise that the APC as a political party does not and will not encourage or promote the existence of cult-like associations in the name of political activities or groupings.”
Undoubtedly, the 2023 NNPP presidential candidate, Kwankwaso, was the subject of doublespeak. Recall that the APC national chairman, Dr Ganduje, started weaving the thread of a possible return of his former political godfather by predicting Kwankwaso’s return to APC.
He had made the remarks while receiving in audience the Tinubu Support Group, who paid him a courtesy call at the APC national secretariat, Abuja. The national chairman, while telling his visitors that APC has continued to receive prominent political actors, including federal lawmakers, remarked that the party was eagerly waiting for the NNPP’s former presidential candidate’s return to the ruling party.
But, the state chairman of NNPP, Hashimu Dungurawa, declared during a press conference in Kano that neither the party leader, Kwankwaso, nor Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf (Gida-Gida), was nursing any plans of defecting from NNPP, not to talk of joining the federal ruling party.
Also, a prominent chieftain of the party, Engineer Buba Galadima, told The Guardian that the story of impending defection was a creation of the APC national chairman, Ganduje. He noted that while the NNPP has been giving Nigerians an insight into what the party has to offer by way of responsive and responsible governance in Kano State, people do not remember the preceding Ganduje administration for any meaningful development.
Galadima declared that only political failures talk about the next election in the middle of their terms, stressing that it was only by the grace of President Bola Tinubu that a character like the former Kano State governor should be chairman of a national party.
While denying any immediate or remote plans to collapse the NNPP’s structure into APC, Galadima reiterated: “These are the same people who use social media and propaganda to denigrate us in NNPP.
“How can Ganduje be chairman of anything? They are the people who keep mentioning us in the media, because they are confused, everything is going asunder across the country
“If they are not claiming that Kwankwaso is working for President Tinubu, they will gossip that Kwankwaso is going to France to lobby Mr. President.” He disclosed that “no sane person in Kano or any part of the country should be proud to associate with APC under Ganduje,” stressing that the APC national chairman likes to use NNPP to gain media visibility.
The verbal darts exchanged by the leaderships of APC and NNPP affirmed the growing perception that the battle for the soul of Kano in 2027 would not only be fierce but also go a long way to establish which group actually possesses the superior strategy.
Between ideas and men
From the look of things, there is no doubt that the APC parades many big names. But, there is also an obvious lack of cohesion among the many timbres and caterpillars within the party’s fold.
On the flipside, going by the configuration and leadership structure of the NNPP and its Kwankwasiyya component, the party’s hierarchy maintains a closely-knit organisational make-up. The symbolic nature of Kwankwasiyya group, and therefore, NNPP, makes the bandwagon effect very pervasive and obtrusive.
A former Director of Planning, Research and Statistics (DPRS), in the Office of Documentation, Government House, Kano, Mallam Adamu Nababa, told The Guardian that opposition politics has always been the mainstay and general norm of Kano State politics.
Nababa explained that Kano politics is also normally based on who is the centre of attraction at the time. He explained that Kwankwaso was a very clever politician whose ideology caught on with Kano. He stated: “And, we always look at it that the ideology, his effort and the ideas he is trying to sell, are now well settled in Kano.
“So, the government we have in Kano is a government that we know in the real sense of the word, you cannot even qualify to be a government. “Because you have a governor and you have the executioner. Somewhere, somehow, somebody or a large set of people are totally suppressed. And when somebody is suppressed, two things happen.
“Either he didn’t even know that he is suppressed or even if he knows, he is blackmailed into submission, because he cannot fight back, so he will remain under the suppression.”
On what could make the 2027 showdown very tricky, Nababa noted: Ganduje and Kwankwaso are like birds of the same feather. Ganduje has committed everything you can accuse Kwankwaso of. And everything you can accuse Ganduje, Kwankwaso has committed it, because they were the best of friends since 1999 when they reconciled and clinched the Governorship of Kano as governor and deputy governor.
“Nobody knows what they do in a closed session. So, when they broke up, everybody started insulting the other. So, to me, when it comes to election, under the present condition for the governorship of Kano State, I assure you that in a normal election, Kwankwaso will still clinch the governorship seat.”
It could be inferred that while the NNPP under Kwankwaso is having its acts right, the same could not be said of APC under Ganduje. At least, having been exiled to Abuja literally, the home turf is left free for Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf (Abba Gida-Gida) and Kwankwasiyya to play.
Time was when Ganduje had the greater end of the stake. That was during his stint as governor. And Kwankwaso was singled out for vilification. The red caps- Kwankwasiyya’s symbols- were outlawed. As Governor, Ganduje also burnt his own red cap, signifying the end of political alliance with Senator Kwankwaso.
Now, possessing that federal might, and Kwankwaso still commanding the entire garrison of Kwankwasiyya, these two former allies will clash once more in 2027. But, while Ganduje will be leading the defence of the federal forces on behalf of President Tinubu, Governor Yusuf would be leading the Kwankwasiyya on the onslaught against any foreign invaders arrayed against Kwankwaso’s political interest.
Penultimate week when The Guardian visited Kano State, a readily discernible fact is that Ganduje seems not to be doing a lot of things right as party leader. The consensus of opinion of APC chieftains in the state is that “the APC in Kano is doing a lot of things the wrong way.”
Mallam Nababa, who affirmed that observation stated: “The APC has everything, they have all the supporters. But, they are not being very strategic. They just allow things to scatter anyhow, because the membership is not really so much intact. They are not aligned together. They don’t even know themselves. They don’t have a working agenda.
“All that APC can do is to come together, know themselves, know what to do, how to do it, and when to do it. That is what Kwankwaso has, that is why it is very difficult to take Kano from Kwankwaso.”
However, despite that low delivery by the national chairman, the Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Barau Jibrin, is giving a good account of himself in the state, particularly in Kano Central Senatorial District, where he stands strong like the Rock of Gibraltar. Senator Barau has continued to hold court, reaching out to citizens and convincing some opposition elements on the need to stand together for APC and President Tinubu.
Next is Sumaila Kawu, who was wronged by APC when its denied him the Senatorial ticket to favour former Governor Kabiru Gaya, who eventually lost to the Kano South Senatorial seat to NNPP.
The Guardian gathered that although efforts are in top gear to bring back Kawu, the politician is already working for APC and Tinubu’s second term interest across party divides. Another strong APC footsoldier in Kano is Hon. Alhassan Ado Doguwa, who holds Tudun Wada under wraps. Very bold and articulate, Doguwa remains a powerful force in Kano politics and very big credit to the Tinubu team.
Add, Abba from Bichi to the side, it is obvious that APC in Kano will deliver close to 40 per cent of the presidential votes to President Tinubu. Abubakar Kabir Abubakar, has continued to hold the Bichi federal constituency with responsive representation and empathic leadership.
All said, given Kwankwaso’s presence on the ground, a situation that helps him handle matters expeditiously and cementing the party’s cohesiveness, NNPP will most likely repeat its 2023 feat in Kano. At the end of the day, APC, Ganduje and Barau will justify the confidence reposed on them by President Tinubu to secure more than the comfortable 25 per cent of votes cast at the presidential ballot.
This is where NNPP is reaping from. As leader, Kwankwaso will just sit at his home and invite all the local government chairmen and they will come. Call all the members of the House of Reps of NNPP, they will come. Call all the cabinet members of the state government, they will come. You understand?
Ganduje should be seen doing something like that in Kano. He should be seen to be taking care of APC in his state. He should have a palace, a kind of an avenue whereby he will be seen together with Barau, Alhassan Ado, with Gawuna and in fact, with everybody in one place, peacefully discussing politics. This is what people of Kano want to see in APC, because Kwankwaso is already doing that.
