CEO and Founder of Awabah, Tunji Andrews, has projected that Nigeria’s inflation rate will decline to 15% by the end of 2025.
Andrews made this prediction during his appearance on the Drinks and Mics podcast, hosted by Ugo Obi-Chukwu, CEO of Nairametrics, on Friday.
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Andrews expressed optimism about the current economic trajectory, stating,
“We are hitching closer to the 15[% mark], and we are going to get there. If you look around, just generally feel Nigeria… they [prices] don’t have to come down for inflation to drop. They just have to remain stable.”
He further explained that while certain commodities like dairy and eggs experience price fluctuations, the prices of everyday items have remained relatively stable.
“You’ve not gone to the supermarket recently and seen a spike in prices of normal commodities. Regular stuff that you normally buy on a day-to-day basis has still stayed the same prices. So, I do believe that we will continue to see a drop in inflation till the end of the year,” Andrews noted.
The rebasing effect
The Awabah CEO also highlighted the impact of changes in the inflation basket, which now includes a broader range of goods and services.
According to him, the previous inflation basket was heavily influenced by petrol prices, but the current basket incorporates items less affected by fuel costs.
“Mind you, the general context of inflation is now enlarged. We’ve put a lot more things inside it. And those things are not as affected by petrol as we used to have. The previous basket was heavily affected by petrol,” he explained.
Andrews’ comments come amid ongoing efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the federal government to curb inflation, which has remained a significant challenge for the economy.
The latest Consumer Price Index and Inflation report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals that Nigeria’s inflation rate fell to 23.18% in February 2025, down from 24.1% in January 2025.
Inflation may decelerate further
An economic expert, Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for Protection of Private Enterprises (CPPE), speaking earlier with Nairametrics projected a potential further decline in Nigeria’s inflation rate in 2025, citing a combination of government policies and improving macroeconomic conditions.
Dr. Yusuf explained, “The further deceleration in inflation rate in February can be ascribed to two factors. The first is the base effect. When we compare the 2025 figures to 2024, you’re likely to see a significant deceleration [in the inflation rate gap]. Inflation is essentially measured on a year-on-year basis, and because prices in 2024 were highly elevated.
President Bola Tinubu has repeatedly stated his administration’s unwavering commitment to reducing the inflation rate from 34.6% to 15% by the end of 2025.
President Tinubu’s 2025 budget presentation, made on December 18, 2024, projected a reduction in inflation from the current rate of 34.6% to 15% in 2025.
- The proposed budget, which is about N22 trillion higher than that of 2024, includes significant allocations for defense and security (N4.91 trillion), infrastructure (N4.06 trillion), health (N2.4 trillion), and education (N3.5 trillion), among other sectors.
- Despite these ambitious plans, analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of these projections, especially the inflation target.
- When Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, Nigeria’s inflation rate stood at 22.41%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
- However, inflation surged to an alarming 34.6% by November 2024, a rise many economists attribute to the president’s controversial policies, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the country’s foreign exchange rates.
Despite these challenges, President Tinubu’s budget speech projected optimism, not only for inflation but also for the exchange rate, which he believes will improve from N1,700 per dollar to N1,500 per dollar by 2025.
