Ever since former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai defected from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the polity has been awash with projections and speculations about the likely impact of that move on the 2027 presidential election, LEO SOBECHI and ADAMU ABUH report.
Former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai’s sudden defection to the fifth-rated Social Democratic Party (SDP) has sparked off intense conversations about the outlook of 2027 general election. At a time, the former governor and former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) was found hobnobbing with chieftains of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), particularly the 2023 presidential candidate of the party, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.
In his home state, Kaduna, he was seen holding a series of meetings with the National Chairman of SDP, Shehu Musa Gabam. All those moves left tongues wagging, even as the impression was created that things were no longer looking up for the fire-spitting political activist in the ruling APC.
Perhaps in a bid to dramatise his disenchantment with his former party, El-Rufai changed his political steps by holding closed-door parleys with the immediate past Minister of Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, and Pastor Tunde Bakare, in the South West region.
Earlier, he was part of the dignitaries in Atiku’s entourage during a condolence visit to the family of deceased elder statesman and leader of the Niger Delta, Chief Edwin Clark.
On that occasion, the former Kaduna State governor poured encomiums on Atiku, reminding Nigerians that as Vice President from 1999 to 2007, the PDP leader spearheaded economic reforms during the Olusegun Obasanjo administration.
He stated: “Nobody gives Alhaji Atiku Abubakar the credit for economic policy-making under Obasanjo’s administration. Many of the things we did were under his leadership.
“Maybe because we don’t write about it, and people don’t read history, we tend to forget. We only remember negative things. Maybe, it’s part of human nature.”
With such profuse words of positive sentiments, the former APC chieftain raised public anticipations that he could be charting his path back to the party that brought him into national political prominence, the PDP.
That line of thought was reinforced when he disclosed that “APC has fallen short of expectations as a progressive party,” even as he left his audience to figure things out by themselves by refusing to state whether he would support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second term bid in the 2027 poll.
But all doubts and speculations were put to rest recently when the former governor announced his entry to the SDP to the joy and admiration of the party’s big wigs, including its 2023 presidential candidate, Prince Adewole Adebayo.
Defection born of ambition or patriotism
Although the move marked the first significant move by such a prominent player on the nation’s political turf towards the 2027 presidential poll, many keen observers of the polity anticipated that the former Kaduna State governor would want to influence the course of events leading to the next general election.
El-Rufai had always insisted that the North West zone of Nigeria is so strategically located that it would always dictate the direction of the country’s presidential poll. In 2023, most observers believed that he articulated and supported the Muslim/Muslim joint ticket with a view to benefiting from it.
It was said that the former Kaduna chief executive emboldened the APC presidential standard bearer, Tinubu, by pointing to his experimentation in Kaduna, where he dropped his former Deputy, Barnabas Bala (Bantex) to pick Dr. Hadiza Balarabe as running mate and won. In furtherance of his confidence that such pairing would deliver victory for the APC presidential candidate, El-Rufai was also said to have imposed his former deputy on the then gubernatorial candidate in 2023, Senator Uba Sani.
However, to his disappointment and chagrin, President Tinubu chose Senator Kashim Shettima as his running mate. And even after the election was won and Tinubu was sworn into office, the President’s decision to enlist El-Rufai as one of his cabinet members went into a tailspin that culminated in an intriguing circumlocution between the Senate and the Department of State Services (DSS).
Ever since that botched ministerial appointment, where he was given a heads up on a possible posting to the Power Ministry, the former governor got pissed not only with the administration, but also the party in power, the APC. Therefore, it was against that intriguing background that El-Rufai’s switch of political affiliation from APC to SDP elicited much public interest. Although some commentators claimed that the former governor was in a hurry to ventilate his presidential ambition, others saw the move as driven by unrelenting beef against President Tinubu for stunting his political progression.
Announcing his defection from APC, El-Rufai disclosed in the letter of resignation submitted to his ward that he served APC diligently “and made my contributions to its viability as a political platform, but I recognise that the party has since strayed and left me stuck in the vision of its well-meaning founding fathers and mothers.”
Continuing, he noted: “As a loyal party man, I worked to help secure the APC’s election victories in 2015, 2019 and 2023. I was one of the many governors elected on the party’s platform in 2015 and 2019 that stood for certain democratic and progressive principles to advance nation-building.”
And dismissing speculations about his vice presidential candidate aspiration, the ex-governor declared: “Without prejudice to this decision, as a member of the SDP, I will focus on engaging with and persuading other opposition leaders and parties to join us and congregate under a unified democratic platform to challenge the APC in all elections and bye-elections between now and 2027 by the grace of God.”
He disclosed that he consulted with his political mentors, including former president Muhammadu Buhari, before resolving to join SDP in readiness for the 2027 election cycle.
As if endorsing the feasibility of a joint presidential ticket with the new entrant to the party, the SDP presidential candidate in the 2023 poll, Adebayo, hailed El-Rufai’s entry as the beginning of a new era of good politics.
Taking to his verified X handle, @Pres_Adebayo, the former standard bearer stated: “With the hardworking and sagacious Mallam joining our ranks, an avid worker for the people has been enlisted in our forces against poverty and insecurity.
“Now is the time for us to put our collective shoulders behind the efforts to fulfill Chapter 2 of the Constitution and rescue Nigerians from bad governance and underdevelopment to restore #HopeAgain 2027 to the suffering masses callously left behind in the locust years of the APC and its co-traveller, PDP.”
Goodbye to rubbish, suspense
While the SDP presidential candidate was leading party faithful to sing alleluia for El-Rufai’s membership of the party, his exit from APC was hailed in his home state as a good bye to bad politics and hate mongering.
Senator Shehu Sani, who represented Kaduna Central in the Senate from 2015 to 2019, said having lost political relevance in the state, El-Rufai’s defection was of benefit to only himself, maintaining that his joining SDP cannot deconstruct the political panorama of Kaduna.
However, the Chief Strategist for the proposed National Political Coalition, Mallam Salihu Mohammed Lukman, regretted that the former governor’s defection was a bit hasty, stressing that there were a lot of ‘I’s and ‘T’s yet to be dotted and crossed in the choice of preferred political platform by the coalition.
Lukman, who is also a political associate of El-Rufai, disclosed that “the discussion about whether SDP will be there or not has been an ongoing thing. The challenge is whether SDP will submit itself to some of the conditions that we believe are necessary.”
He asserted: “Frankly speaking, unlike most conventional politicians who just want a platform where they will present candidates and use it to win elections, there are a few of us who believe the issue is beyond that.
“What Nigerians need is a platform that will promote political competition in the country. If you remember, the problem Nigerians had with PDP is the problem of imposition of candidates. And when the APC came and promised ‘Change’, the expectation of Nigerians is that we will change the culture of imposition.
“Unfortunately, we have failed in that. In fact, it has become worse. If things continue as they are, you can predict that President Asiwaju will become the candidate of APC, and you can predict all the first-time governors of APC will emerge as the candidate of APC, whether they are popular in their states or not.
“You can also predict that all legislators at federal and state levels, whether they have performed or not, so long as they are in the good books of Asiwaju and the party leadership, they will be returned.”
Sure win for incumbent
In the wake of El-Rufai’s exit from the party, some APC chieftains have maintained that it would be hard for the opposition to dislodge President Tinubu in 2027. For instance, the 2015 governorship candidate of the party in Kebbi State, Mallam Salihu Nataro, said that if opposition parties want to defeat the President, they should show their economic blueprint that could beat Tinubu’s reforms.
“They must look at his reforms, which have proved to be very good policies to stabilise the economy. He is reforming the civil service to rid it of its old ways of governance and initiating iron road technology in infrastructure development.
“The Renewed Hope agenda is actually based on modern world order and how to create sustainable development, because the Nigerian economy doesn’t tolerate unnecessary expenditures,” he stated.
Also, while describing El-Rufai’s defection and call for North and South alliance to defeat President Tinubu in 2027 as a distraction, a former member of the National Assembly, Israel Sunny-Goli, said vacancy in the Presidency could only come in 2031.
He explained that since President Tinubu has continued to address the country’s economic and security challenges diligently, the rescue being suggested by El-Rufai is already dead on arrival, stressing: “Nigeria under the leadership of President Tinubu is in safe hands.”
