● Alleges arrest, detention plot, vows to remain in Nigeria
● APC chair dismisses Northern vote threat, okays Tinubu for two-term presidency
● Dismissing North’s voting strength may be costly, chieftain cautions
● Ex-Kaduna gov’s stance indicates frustration, grandstanding, says Bwala
● Audu: Politicians should address concerns logically, not exploit division
Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir el-Rufai, sounded the alarm over a deepening rift between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the northern region yesterday, warning that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) risks political disaster akin to the downfall of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2015.
He also revealed claims of threats to his life, including an alleged plot to arrest and torture him.
In a post titled: ‘2027: South-West, Tinubu’s Supporters Playing with Fire – Part 1’, shared via his verified X handle, el-Rufai lamented the dwindling support for the Tinubu administration in the north, less than two years into its tenure.
The former governor also criticised the handling of political affairs within the APC, cautioning against overconfidence.
el-Rufai said: “It is actually premature to be talking about 2027 elections less than two years into our first tenure, but what is happening in the political arena is forcing me to speak to it, for as they say, ‘a stitch in time saves nine.”
However, the National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, expressed confidence that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will complete two terms in office from 2023 to 2031.
Ganduje reiterated the party’s commitment to power rotation between the North and South. He argued that Tinubu’s presidency was a natural continuation of the APC’s established principle. He also pointed to former President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure as a precedent, insisting Tinubu would enjoy a similar opportunity.
“When a leader from the Northern part of this country was in office for eight years, we advocated that the next President in our party should come from the South. And luckily enough, we worked very hard with the cooperation of Nigerians. Our President has come from the South and is going, insha Allah, for a second term in 2027. After that, it will be the turn of the northern part of this country,” he said.
Earlier in the day, Ganduje also met with the Tinubu Young Generation Forum at the party’s secretariat, where he praised Tinubu’s performance in office. Describing the President as a reformer and visionary leader, Ganduje emphasised the administration’s focus on repositioning the country for sustainable development.
“We are happy with his reforms because they are absolutely necessary for the socio-economic development of this country. Undoubtedly, many things went wrong over a long period, and it requires surgery to get it right.
“We are already seeing the outcomes of these reforms, especially in the economic sector, and we believe this will continue to yield positive results. The legacy and the renewed hope agenda will be achieved,” Ganduje added.
Also, the Special Assistant to the President on Public Affairs, Mr Aliyu Audu, criticised el-Rufai, accusing him of lacking the moral authority to speak on behalf of the North regarding electoral matters.
Audu, who is also the convener of the APC Rebirth Movement, dismissed el-Rufai’s assertions and emphasised that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu continues to enjoy the support of voters across the North and other parts of the country as he positions himself for a second-term bid in the 2027 election.
“I don’t agree with him (el-Rufai). This is no time to play politics of regions but of national interest. In any case, Mallam el-Rufai doesn’t speak for the Northern region. A detailed analysis of the last election shows that the North voted more for the PDP and Atiku Abubakar than for the APC and President Tinubu,” Audu said.
He added that President Tinubu’s victory in the 2023 election was not solely determined by regional support but by a broad coalition of progressive-minded voters nationwide. According to Audu, Tinubu’s win, with 25 per cent of votes in over two-thirds of the states and the Federal Capital Territory, underscores a nationwide mandate.
“The country is finally on the right course under President Tinubu’s leadership. Politicians who feel aggrieved should address their concerns logically instead of exploiting divisive sentiments of religion, region, and ethnicity,” Audu stated.
For his part, the Special Adviser on Policy Communication to President Bola Tinubu, Daniel Bwala, called on el-Rufai to resolve his concerns with the president privately rather than airing them publicly.
Bwala, speaking yesterday on Arise Television’s Morning Show, described el-Rufai as a valuable member of the APC, who should avoid public grandstanding or aligning with opposition forces over his grievances.
While noting that el-Rufai remains a member of the ruling party, Bwala stated, “el-Rufai has said he has not left the party, so since he is in the party, I think he is not playing opposition—he is probably complaining, and the facts are there in the public domain.”
The presidential aide expressed respect for El-Rufai, citing a personal connection between them, and advised him to engage President Tinubu directly to address his concerns.
“I see him as somebody with value,” Bwala said. “We all know what may have happened in the past that made him feel displeased, but I believe the best way to handle the situation is not through grandstanding or aligning with the opposition.”
Bwala also reflected on el-Rufai’s tenure as governor, suggesting that his current stance might stem from frustration. He remarked, “During his time as governor under Buhari, people raised similar concerns, and he dismissed them. My thinking is that his current stance is part of his story of frustration.”
He urged el-Rufai to engage with the president directly, emphasising the need for private dialogue to resolve grievances.
In other reactions, Mr Osita Okechukwu, a founding member of the APC, expressed partial agreement with el-Rufai, acknowledging the importance of Northern votes. However, he refuted the idea that the North has a monopoly on electoral outcomes.
“Regrettably, this erroneous assumption of Northern dominance in elections is what led the PDP to grief in 2023. They gambled on the notion that a Northern candidate like Atiku Abubakar would guarantee victory, which backfired,” Okechukwu argued.
However, Rev Dominic Alancha, National Coordinator of the Concerned North-Central APC Stakeholders Forum, supported el-Rufai’s stance. He advised President Tinubu to reconcile with aggrieved party members in the North to bolster his chances in the 2027 election.
“While 2027 is still far, it is essential for the APC and the president’s supporters to tread cautiously. The North’s voting strength remains significant, and dismissing its influence could be a costly mistake,” Alancha said.
MEANWHILE, in his post yesterday, el-Rufai expressed his wish for the APC to secure re-election in 2027 but admitted concerns about the party’s trajectory. Reflecting on past warnings, he recounted his 2019 observation about the party’s primaries, noting that if the APC prioritised winning at all costs over its ideological foundation, it risked losing power by 2031, akin to the fate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
“Less than two years into the tenure, we are witnesses to how the relationship between the north and President Tinubu, or rather his administration, is quickly deteriorating,” he said. He attributed the growing discord to the words and actions of individuals from Tinubu’s geopolitical zone, whom he described as engaging in “arrogant posturing and braggadocio.”
Drawing parallels to Jonathan’s administration, el-Rufai remarked that it was not just the policies but the perceived disregard for the north that led to the downfall of Jonathan and the PDP in 2015. He noted: “As we approached the 2023 presidential election, I cautioned that we should be careful and not play with the north. Somehow, common sense prevailed, and we succeeded, unarguably with the unquantifiable help of the north.”
He warned, however, that the administration’s current trajectory mirrored past mistakes. “May I remind some persons that, more than the performance or lack thereof of the President Goodluck Jonathan administration, it was his attitude, and that of people around him, towards the north that ultimately brought him down and by extension the PDP,” he said.
Also, el-Rufai alleged a plot to arrest, detain, and torture him in a facility operated by the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA).
In a post on his X handle, el-Rufai claimed he had heard such rumours since July 2024, following the Kaduna State House of Assembly’s report indicting him for fraud.
The allegations surfaced amid an ongoing rift between el-Rufai’s camp and the National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu. The tension escalated after a viral video in which political activist Naja’atu Muhammad alleged that Ribadu had, during his tenure as chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), accused President Bola Tinubu of corruption.
Ribadu, through his lawyer, Dr Ahmed Raji (SAN), denied the allegations and described the claims as defamatory. He demanded a public apology and retraction from the activist, stating that the accusations had caused unquantifiable damage.
In a counter-response, el-Rufai accused Ribadu of “serious amnesia”, citing Senate proceedings from 2006 and a Daily Trust report from February 2007 as evidence that Ribadu had indeed made the statements against Tinubu.
“They have been sending messages of intimidation and threats through my friends, family, and political associates, pushing for me to go into self-imposed exile. I will not,” el-Rufai declared.
The former governor also revealed that threats against him have intensified since he initiated legal action challenging the Assembly’s report, which he described as an attempt to compromise the judicial process.
He disclosed that he had postponed his academic and language-learning plans to stay in Nigeria and speak out on national issues, declaring, “Silence is no longer golden.”
el-Rufai insisted he remained undeterred, saying, “There is always a morning after arrest, detention, or torture, and political life continues.”
He announced his intention to return to Nigeria in time for the February 20 launch of former President Ibrahim Babangida’s memoirs, concluding, “We depend on no one but Allah. We fear no mortal but Almighty Allah.”
