Joel Embiid has a solid argument for NBA MVP, and his one trump card over Nikola Jokic is what happened the only time they met this season.
On Jan. 28, Embiid outplayed Jokic. Embiid had 47 points, 18 rebounds, five assists, three steals and two blocks as the 76ers beat the Nuggets. Jokic had a solid line — 24 points, nine assists, eight rebounds — but there was no question Embiid was better that day. That’s the game that Embiid defenders have carried with them all season.
Embiid took over as the betting favorite in the MVP race a little more than a week ago. There isn’t much time for Jokic to catch up, and his best chance comes Monday night in Denver.
Joel Embiid is the MVP favorite
Embiid is a -150 favorite to win MVP at BetMGM. That’s a bit down from his odds of -200 last week. Jokic was +275 last week, but +185 on Monday. Giannis Antetokounmpo has a great argument too, but he could have used a win over the Nuggets on Saturday. The Milwaukee Bucks lost 129-106 to the Nuggets.
If you like Jokic to win MVP, bet it now. Because if he wins MVP, it’s probably going to be due to what happens on Monday night. The 76ers play at Denver. Embiid is listed as questionable, and it would be a surprise if he doesn’t play in what should be an incredible showdown between two great players and teams.
The 76ers are 5.5-point underdogs against a Nuggets team that has been fantastic at home most of the season. If Embiid outplays Jokic and the 76ers win, the MVP race is probably all but over. Embiid is already the favorite, he’d have the head-to-head argument and it seems that there’s a bit of a bias against giving Jokic a third straight MVP award.
If Jokic puts up another triple-double and the Nuggets win decisively, that might not flip the favorite. But it would make an already heated argument even more interesting.
Nikola Jokic’s argument for MVP
Jokic’s argument for MVP is pretty simple. He’s lapping the field in triple doubles, he’s 0.1 assists from averaging a triple double over the season (which, as a center, would be one of the more remarkable feats in NBA history) and he’s doing it for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. But there’s that game back in Philly that voters have to account for.
That first 76ers-Nuggets game happened on national television. Monday’s game will at least be on NBA TV, but the television stage shouldn’t matter. If Jokic outplays Embiid in a win, that should matter in the race. And that’s where the betting odds come in.
The Nuggets are 5.5-point favorites, which is pretty heavy against a very good 76ers team. A bet on Jokic at +185 for MVP could look pretty good by Tuesday morning. Or, Embiid has a great game, the 76ers win and the race is practically over.
There’s a lot at stake on Monday night. We’ll see what the MVP odds look like on Tuesday.