This is a time of hope for all 32 NFL teams. No matter how a squad performed a year ago or what its realistic prospects are for 2023, there’s optimism that an also-ran can become a playoff contender, that a playoff contender can make a Super Bowl run.
This is going to be the year. Just sign a free agent or two, have a good draft next month, get a little lucky with injuries, and this is it.
Of course, while hope springs eternal this time of year, there’s another feeling running through more than a few locker rooms: pressure.
Andy Reid obviously doesn’t have to worry about job security in Kansas City. Neither does Nick Sirianni or Howie Roseman in Philadelphia. Or Zac Taylor in Cincinnati. But there are more than a few head coaches and general managers who could be having their last seasons with their teams unless their fortunes improve.
For those coaches and GMs, the 2023 campaign will begin on the hot seat.
And their margin for error has all but disappeared.
You can sometimes tell when a head coach is feeling the heat. The coaches around him will begin to shuffle. That was the case for the Cleveland Browns after a 7-10 campaign in 2022, with both defensive coordinator Joe Woods and special teams coordinator Mike Priefer being shown the door.
It’s not like Kevin Stefanski can fire the offensive play-caller, after all.
While speaking to reporters at the NFL Scouting Combine, Stefanski said the shake-up could be just what the doctor ordered to get the Browns back on track:
“You look at everything, you try to be as clear-eyed about it and you try to spend as much time as you can on every decision you make. So with all of our coaches, you try to spend some time and look at what is best for the organization and just with some of the moves we made, I felt like that was what was best for us.”
After winning Coach of the Year honors for leading the Browns to an 11-5 record in 2020, Stefanski has seen his team get progressively worst in each of the last two years, with eight wins in 2021 followed by seven last season.
If that trend doesn’t reverse in Deshaun Watson’s first full season under center, Stefanski isn’t going to be back for a fourth season in 2024.
Despite going 24-10 over the last two seasons in charge of the Dallas Cowboys, Mike McCarthy is a regular in columns like this. But the one-time Super Bowl winner said he’s been assured by team owner Jerry Jones that the ice under his feet is thick.
“As far as my relationship with Jerry … we are in an excellent spot. The partnership that we have, he’s excited about,” McCarthy said, per Tyler Dragon of USA Today. “He told me a number of times this week that he wants me to coach here as long as coach [Tom] Landry did. I said, ‘OK, that’s a long time.’ I feel really good about our relationship. I think our ability to discuss and disagree, we do a good job at that. I think that’s important.”
Tell yourself whatever you need to, Mike.
This isn’t to say that Jones didn’t say that. Or that McCarthy has done a bad job. But racking up regular-season wins isn’t the goal in Dallas. Neither is making the playoffs. The aim is the same every year: win the Super Bowl. The Cowboys haven’t even played in an NFC Championship Game in nearly three decades, and McCarthy is 1-2 in the postseason.
If McCarthy’s squad makes another early exit from the playoffs in 2023 (or misses them altogether), it may not be his team anymore.
While talking to reporters at the end-of-season press conference for the Los Angeles Chargers in January, head coach Brandon Staley made it clear that he wasn’t going to enter the offseason overly concerned about speculation regarding his job security:
“The nature of the NFL. You understand the way it is and that there’s always going to be speculation when other people may not be thinking that you are having the success that they think you should have. Internally, what matters is the way that your players, your coaches, your personnel department and your ownership, the way that they feel because they’re with you on a day-to-day basis. They are, ultimately, the ones who know who you are and what you are about. That’s what gives me a lot of confidence in our situation here.”
At first glance, Staley has done well. His Chargers have posted consecutive winning seasons and made the playoffs in 2022. But the end of both of his seasons at the helm have been ugly.
In 2021, L.A. fell flat in a must-win Week 18 matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders. Last year, the Bolts blew the third-biggest lead in postseason history against the Jacksonville Jaguars. And that came after Staley played his starters well into the second half of a meaningless Week 18 game in which star wide receiver Mike Williams got hurt.
If the Chargers’ 2023 season ends with a third straight collapse, it will likely be Staley’s last.
The Raiders have had an eventful offseason. Derek Carr is gone, replaced by Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. Garoppolo joins the team having already played in a Josh McDaniels offense, and he told reporters at his introductory presser that familiarity should pay dividends in 2023.
“I was actually just talking to Josh about it,” Garoppolo said. “It’ll take me, you know, I got to get my stuff down first before I could start helping everybody and getting us all on the same page. But that comes with the territory of a quarterback, I guess. You’ve just got to do a little bit of everything, but I’m looking forward to it.
That’s a good thing because McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler may need Garoppolo to save their jobs.
To be clear, there are those who believe that team owner Mark Davis won’t fire McDaniels because he can’t financially afford to, in part due to the Jon Gruden settlement. The former head coach resigned in October 2021 after emails surfaced in which he used racist, misogynistic and anti-gay language.
But there’s no way to sugarcoat just how terrible the Raiders were under McDaniels and Ziegler last year. They became the first team in NFL history to blow four double-digit halftime leads in a single season. Ziegler signed Carr to an extension only to cut him loose less than a year later.
The GM has to do better in his second draft, especially with the seventh overall pick after not selecting until Round 3 last year. McDaniels and the on-field product have to be substantially better.
The Raiders have to at least be competitive, or Davis may decide to heck with the money.
Washington Commanders head coach Ron Rivera has accomplished quite a bit in his career. He has been named the NFL’s Coach of the Year twice and led a team to the Super Bowl.
But that Super Bowl trip and Rivera’s last Coach of the Year Award both came back in 2015, when he was with the Carolina Panthers. And through three seasons in Washington, Rivera is a lackluster 22-27-1. The Commanders have made the playoffs once, losing in the Wild Card Round.
At Washington’s season-ending presser, Rivera said the team has improved on his watch, even if it doesn’t show up in the win-loss record:
“You look at the number of young guys we’ve put on the football field that played for us, that played meaningful minutes in big games and won. You like to think that that shows that they are growing, that they’re developing, they understand what it takes now. So, I’d like to think that that shows something. It’s not always on what’s on the win loss record that indicates whether you’ve grown a little bit or not. It’s been my experience that winning certain types of games are important. And I think we did some of those things. We’ve done it a couple of times where we’ve beat the last undefeated team in games that we weren’t picked to even come close.”
The biggest thing working in Rivera’s favor right now may be Washington’s uncertain ownership situation. That makes big moves in the short-term unlikely. But by season’s end, the Commanders will more likely than not be sold.
And a seventh consecutive non-winning season isn’t going to sit well with the new owners.
Last year, the New Orleans Saints suffered through their first losing season since 2016. Given that lack of success, there was speculation that Dennis Allen could be one-and-done as head coach. But after Allen was assured he’d be back for a second season, he told reporters that job security was a conversation he was no longer interested in having.
“I don’t think there’s any need to discuss that further,” he said.
Allen had better get ready to discuss it, though, because it’s likely going to be a topic that is addressed more than once as we move into the 2023 season.
For starters, while all of the blame (or even most of it) cannot be laid at Allen’s feet, the fact is that his record as a head coach is abysmal. Among those with at least 50 games under their belt, Allen’s winning percentage of .283 is the seventh-worst in NFL history.
Also, while Derek Carr’s arrival is a boost and New Orleans may be the nominal favorite in the NFC South, the Saints remain a flawed team led by a coach whose in-game strategy and decision-making were shaky at times last year.
They are every bit as likely to lose 10 games as win them. And if the former is the case, they will all but certainly move on from Allen.
Arthur Smith’s first two seasons as head coach in have been short on success. The team has gone 7-10 in back-to-back seasons. But in fairness to the 40-year-old, those numbers need context.
Smith didn’t exactly inherit a situation rife for winning. The salary cap was a mess. The team’s quarterback was expensive and past his prime. The roster had holes galore on both sides of the ball. Frankly, an argument can be made that Smith’s Falcons exceeded expectations.
Per Jeff Schultz of The Athletic, Smith said that he’s aware of the expectations for success, but he’s pleased with the progress the team has made:
“No matter what your situation is, you know what you signed up for and the expectations. But I do believe in our process and we’ve tried to be consistent. You know there are some things that are in your control and some things are not in your control. But are you able to adapt? I think we have. I certainly don’t claim that we’re perfect, but we’re pleased.”
The thing is, no matter how much or how loudly Smith preaches patience, at some point, the process has to turn into results. Add in that Atlanta was one of the most aggressive teams in free agency this year, and it’s fair to assume that expectations have sailed past the seven-win mark.
In an NFC South that is arguably the league’s weakest division, the Falcons are going to be expected to make some noise in 2023, or else Smith’s third season running should be his last.
The 2022 campaign was an unmitigated disaster for the Denver Broncos. Nathaniel Hackett lasted less than a year before being fired. The Russell Wilson trade looks like one of the biggest boondoggles in recent memory. But as the season ended, Broncos CEO and owner Greg Penner offered a vote of confidence that general manager George Paton could still build a roster capable of competing for a Super Bowl berth:
“George and I have had the chance to get to know each other. We talk every day since we purchased the team a number of months ago. He acknowledged right up front that there were a couple of decisions that haven’t worked out as he had expected, but I understand his thought process. He understands the work that needs to be done in this offseason, and I’m going to rely on him heavily as we go through and make these changes.”
The Broncos doubled down on making splash moves in 2023, trading even more draft capital to acquire the services of head coach Sean Payton. Given what it cost to obtain him, both financially and in terms of draft capital, Payton isn’t going anywhere for a while.
If Wilson has another bad year, Denver’s offense struggles again and the team experiences another miserable season, someone is going to have to pay for that.
Care to guess who that someone will be?