PORT ST. LUCIE — Part of the decision-making process this season for the Mets involves their four close-to-major-league-ready position prospects: How to use them? When to use them? Where to use them?
“When” is not now for Francisco Alvarez. On Wednesday he was optioned to the minors. So barring a late-spring injury to Omar Narvaez or Tomas Nido, Alvarez will open his season March 31 in what the long-range forecast has as rainy, 40 degree-ish type weather at Polar Park in Worcester against the Red Sox’s Triple-A affiliate rather than a day earlier in Miami with the Mets.
He will be joined by shortstop Ronny Maurcio, who was optioned Saturday. Still unclear is whether they will be reunited one step from the majors with Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. The Mets have scheduled staff meetings this weekend to further discuss the season-opening roster.
In many ways, this has been a strong calling-card camp for the quartet. Alvarez, Baty and Vientos all have left positive defensive impressions — which is critical to them sticking at some point with the big club. And Baty and Mauricio, in particular, have hit terrifically.
But when does the future become now?
A case could be made any of the four would be a better use of the roster spot March 30 than Darin Ruf. Or that Alvarez is superior to Nido. Or Baty would be more productive than Eduardo Escobar. But Billy Eppler and his staff can’t just strategize for March 30. They have to think about covering 162 regular-season games (at least).
Eppler acknowledged the juice that comes with making the Opening Day roster, likening it to opening presents on Christmas. He then added, “But the toys you are playing with on Dec. 28 aren’t the same as Dec. 25.”
Translation: Don’t overemphasize who is in Miami. The Mets, after all, have used 64 and 61 players the past two seasons — the highest totals in their history. They used the injured list 27 times last year, losing 1,255 games (Baseball Prospectus). Thus, a club has to be careful of irreversible moves that rob long-term depth — which protects against injury and underperformance. Nido, for example, is out of options and would almost certainly be lost on waivers if the Mets decided to pair Alvarez and Narvaez and took Nido off the 26-man roster.
In addition, the Mets envision a point at which Alvarez will catch 100 games and DH in at least 40 others to maximize his bat. They don’t want him stunting his catching growth by being behind the plate sporadically as just a regular DH. So they want to be positive that he is ready to catch in the majors full-time. And in the wild-card era (since 1995), the most games started at catcher by a player 21 or younger (Alvarez will play at 21 this year) is 49 by Brian McCann and Dioner Navarro in 2005.
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Eppler said the determination when to call up one of these players revolves around several evaluation points — how is a potentially vulnerable player in the majors playing, and has a player in the minors hit key benchmarks, for example, in his swing decisionmaking and in converting above-average plays on defense.
“You want that all in place because there is no bigger test than New York City,” Eppler said. “You want to make sure they are ready in every way for the high expectations in the city that never sleeps and is always watching.”
Alvarez batted just .107 in 31 spring plate appearances without an extra-base hit. Showalter acknowledged human nature and that Alvarez probably was pressing trying to make the team — because the organization (and opposing scouts) have little doubts about his offense. Showalter continued to rave about Alvarez’s defensive upgrades — a difference-making arm and improvement in finer detail within game-calling and pitcher-catcher relationships. I will take this as sincere and not just continuing to boost Alvarez’s value, though it sounds a lot like Gerrit Cole early in his Yankees tenure — unsolicited — raving about Gary Sanchez’s defense, up until the moment that Kyle Higashioka was his personal catcher.
Perhaps Showalter’s big-picture most vital point was about overall roster decisionmaking — “When you are trying to win, everything is on the table.”
That is why Baty and Vientos are still in camp. Ruf’s roster spot is tenuous — I would not bet on him being subjected to the home-opener crowd April 6. The Mets like Vientos’ loud contact and dislike his swing-and-miss quotient. Is he the righty DH complement to Daniel Vogelbach? The Mets have become more confident at this camp that Baty has done the work to stick at third base. Can he do that from Day 1 with Escobar mixing at-bats there and as the righty DH?
If not March 30, then at some point injuries will open doors for them, Alvarez or Mauricio. But as Showalter cited: The Steve Cohen, $350 million Mets have to win. So, at some point, is it decided that Alvarez is ready to catch or that Mauricio be considered for a position switch to left field over Mark Canha? Or do any figure in trades?
The how, when and where are still being worked out.