Although recent movements across political party platforms in the country and stakeholder endorsements leave the impression that things are looking upwards for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the predominant tendency among voters in South-East points to a possible repeat of massive support for Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LAWRENCE NJOKU reports.
Current indicators in South-East tend to show that contrary to the frenzy, which attended the 2023 presidential election that culminated in a massive win by the Labour Party (LP) and its candidate, Mr Peter Obi, the feat may not be repeated in the 2027 poll in the region.
There has been a slew of cross-party defections among political actors and public endorsements of the incumbent party and its leader, President Tinubu. To a great extent, if these positive estimations of APC and the President are anything to go by, then the ruling party and its standard bearer may get the upper hand this next time.
Some of the reasons given by repentant former opposition politicians in the region for their about-face include the reversal of marginalisation against the zone by the preceding administration, and the quantum of infrastructure projects in the area by President Tinubu.
For instance, a group that styles itself as South East Progressive Association (SEPA) in its recent call for collective support for the President by the zone in the next general election, explained that the zone has keyed into the Renewed Hope Agenda.
The group noted that it would be to the greatest advantage of the geopolitical zone if the President were supported for another term, stressing that it is gratifying that people from all walks of life in the zone have already started keying into the Renewed Hope preachments of the current administration.
In a resolution signed by Mr John Ikeotuonye (Convener) and Secretary, Dr Justin Ogoo Nwankwo, SEPA said it would be gratifying if the zone voted en masse for President Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.
According to the group, “President Tinubu has shown immense courage to address issues like diversion of funds by state governments, delays in remitting funds, and ultimately vision to enhance local government accountability and development.”
SEPA remarked that the current tide of events points to the fact that President Tinubu has the capacity and will to achieve his promises to Nigeria, even as they expressed belief in the President’s capacity to “restructure and recover the Nigerian state from failure.”
Part of the resolution read: “SEPA immediately calls for a close of ranks and building of bridges in the entire South-Eastern States, especially by young professionals and progressives, who are tired of back room and armchair politics.
“We call on young professionals and progressive ambassadors willing to make a difference by joining President Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR to reintegrate, reconcile and reconstruct the South-East Region to rise and be part of this socio-political movement for the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu come 2027.
“We therefore resolve and advise Ndi-Igbo that 2027 must not catch South-East Region unawares! We must be prepared to key into the Renewed Hope Agenda, and position for strategic and progressive alliance with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.”
SEPA further itemised some of the achievements of the Tinubu-led federal government to include the establishment of the South East Development Commission (SEDC), appointment of a Special Adviser for community liaison in South-East states, key political appointments to people of the zone and recent official visits to all the South-East states.
“All these show that the President is poised to solve the challenges confronting the South-East state,” the group stated, adding that what remains is for people of the zone to reciprocate the gestures with their votes in the 2027 general elections.
Recall that shortly after the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Benjamin Okezie Kanu, inaugurated the Renewed Hope Partners (RHP) as a special purpose vehicle to spread awareness about President Tinubu’s achievements in the South-East, many individuals and groups, including Hon Samuel Onuigbo and SEPA, have taken up the challenge to deepen conversation in the zone.
Out of the five states in the South-East, only Ebonyi and Imo States are controlled by APC governors, even as the governors of Abia, Anambra, and Enugu maintain friendly personal relationships with President Tinubu.
But, while the politicians are falling head over heels in their hurry to identify with the APC and President Tinubu, findings show that the electorate remains adamant in their enthusiasm for a Peter Obi presidency.
Although it is not clear as yet on which platform Obi would contest the presidency again in 2027, The Guardian learned that many South-East voters stillhavea preference for his candidacy over that of the incumbent.
Those who volunteered information on their possible choices explained that if zoning was what brought the Presidency to the South, it should be micro-zoned to the South-East for equity and fairness, even as they pleaded not to be identified by name.
In fact, findings show that two years before the next election, the steam which accompanied Obi’s participation in the ballot remains latent, but very potent. Some of those interviewed agreed that the lingering crisis in the LP, lack of clarity about the former LP candidate’s platform and the massive defections to the ruling party have led them to adopt the attitude of wait and see.
The push for the return of the top political post to the South in 2023, following the conclusion of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure, propelled the South-East region to clamour for their zone to be considered for the top job.
The political actors from the zone argued that it was their turn to have a go at the Presidency, especially after the South-West and South-South have all occupied the office of President at one time or another since the return to democracy in 1999.
Obi, who had indicated interest in the office with support from the “Obidient Movement”, left the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the obscure LP, which granted him the ticket to contest in the election.
As a show of support for his aspiration, the zone overwhelmingly voted for the LP, returning Obi as the winner of the election in the southeast. Obi secured 1,960,590 votes against Tinubu’s 127,607 votes in the following order: Enugu – 428,640; Abia 327,095; Anambra 584,621; Ebonyi 259,738; and Imo 360,495 votes. Tinubu scored in Imo 66.046; Ebonyi 42,402; Abia 8914; Anambra 5,111, and Enugu 4772.
The party also won the governorship election in Abia State as well as the majority of seats in the State House of Assembly; in Enugu, the party got two senatorial seats and six of the eight Representative seats, as well as 14 of the 24 State House of Assembly seats. In Anambra, it won eight out of the eleven House of Reps seats and two senatorial seats.
However, about two years to the 2027 presidential election, a lot has changed to cast doubt about the goodwill and zeal with which the zone prosecuted the 2023 presidential election that gave Obi and his party a win over the incumbent president.
Only last week, Obi’s kinsmen in Anambra State, led by the State governor, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo, had assured President Tinubu of the support of the All Progressives Grand Congress (APGA) for his victory in 2027, when he declared that, “APGA and the APC would work together during the 2027 election, as both parties share a common belief in progressivism.”
Speaking to The Guardian, the founding National Chairman of the APGA, Chekwas Okorie, observed that the quest for the retention of office by current governors in the region in 2027 would definitely affect presidential aspirations, whether by Obi or any other politician from the zone.
He stated that the region fully supported Obi in 2023 because there was a power shift to the South, and the fact that the governors were serving out their tenure in office.
“Now that the current occupants of the office have another four years to serve, it will be difficult to convince them to support any other candidate. That is even why the euphoria of the president of Igbo extraction is not gaining traction, in spite of the card being played here and there for Tinubu to serve four years and leave the South-East with the rest of the four years.
Executive Director, Civil Liberties Organisation (CLO), Ibuchukwu Ezike, noted that the kind of politics being played by Tinubu had made it difficult for opposition politicians to operate since he assumed power was taking a toll on the region.
An Enugu lawyer, Nnabuihe Nwankwo, blamed Obi and his Labour Party for failing to utilise the goodwill garnered during the 2023 general elections, stressing that he could not recall the last time any politician from the region enjoyed “such tremendous outpouring of love in a single election” in Nigeria
“You must be ready to oil parties and support structures. This is what is lacking at the moment and gives the impression that the southeast has no stake in the political configuration, compared to what we saw in 2023. In 2023, Obi had organic support, and that was based on the conviction of Nigerians that he understood the challenges better than other contestants.
“It was also amplified in the belief that it was the turn of the South-East region, in the spirit of rotation, to produce the next president. Although I cannot say that the incumbent administration has been able to convince us that our trust in Obi was wrong, most of the people who were instrumental to the 2023 victory in the southeast are no longer there. It is either that they have left or are no longer interested in what is going on”, he said
ButPresident of Njiko Igbo Forum, Okechukwu Obioha, maintained that Obi’s influence would remain active in the 2027 election. He noted that the support Obi enjoyed in 2023 was organic and remains intact, with or without LP.
“I can tell you for free that the crisis in the LP has a bearing on the ruling APC. The aim is to ensure that there is no peace there until the 2027 election is concluded. But LP is not Peter Obi. He can use any platform to actualise the objectives of Ndigbo. I am confident that what his supporters are waiting for is for him to declare interest in any party,” he stated.
Obioha, who also denounced the adoption of Tinubu by Soludo and APGA, stated that the much the region would give Tinubu in 2027 “is five per cent votes, an increase from the three per cent votes he had in the 2023 elections”.
“There is no number of promises made by Tinubu to any Governor or the good people of the South-East on Infrastructure development that will sway the Igbo votes in his favour. We were promised some of these strategic infrastructures, like railways and train services, by the Buhari/Tinubu campaigns in 2022, but to date, railway lines are not functioning, but more dilapidated and moribund than ever.
“Presently, without much Ado, Peter Obi is the only credible and nationally acceptable candidate for the 2027 Presidential election from the South-East,” Obioha stated.
