Dr Olisa Agbakoba is a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) and former President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA). In this interview with KEHINDE OLATUNJI, he examines the sociopolitical landscape and concludes that Nigeria needs to make tough decisions to solve its many challenges.
Nigeria is faced with a myriad of problems that revolve around economic downturn. Can you assess the current administration’s efforts at addressing these concerns?
If you want this country to do well, we have to make tough decisions. I think we need ‘Trumpian’ speed, meaning the country needs to be at full alacrity. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, was concerned about the Chinese withdrawing their interest in UK steel, which was the last steel factory in the United Kingdom.
On a Friday, at 10 Downing, he announced that Parliament would convene in an emergency session on Saturday. They convened, debated, and passed a law in one day. Can you imagine it happening in Nigeria? We are faced with so many emergencies that I hope the government can work with greater speed.
We did a paper suggesting Nigeria’s national development Gross Domestic Product (GDP) budget should be around N500 trillion, and many people said, “How can that happen? It’s not possible.” I said it’s possible if certain things are done.
Firstly, very few Nigerians, even economists, realise that law plays a significant role in budgeting and planning through Legal Policy. A strong foundation is crucial; otherwise, the entire structure may collapse. Nigeria’s number one problem is political governance.
The Constitution isn’t working, and it’s puzzling that despite discussions about constitutional reform since 2000, nothing substantial has been achieved. Nigeria won’t make progress unless it addresses its weak constitutional foundation.
Consequently, we need appropriate regional arrangements; I’d suggest eight. The states are too fragile to carry the Nigerian National Development Agenda. I propose creating the Middle Belt out of the North West and North Central regions, and carving out the Edo part, resulting in eight regions.
This restructuring should be constitutionalised, and the states would cease to exist. These eight constitutional regions would be capable of developing the Nigerian agenda, as Abuja cannot do it alone.
Following this, downsizing the public service would be necessary. You may be aware that three million federal public servants consume 70 to 80 per cent of our national budget, which is unworkable.
President Tinubu’s bold move to remove fuel subsidies is commendable, but the proceeds should have been channeled towards social infrastructure, roads, education, etc., instead of debt repayment. Unfortunately, we’re stuck in a debt cycle.
It’s disheartening that we have repeated the same approaches for 25 years with no success, leading to increased poverty and debt. A new approach is necessary, starting with constitutional reform. I urge President Tinubu to adopt a “Trumpian speed” approach, similar to the UK’s swift action, to resolve our constitutional dilemma by creating a new constitution as quickly as possible. After that, we can focus on economic governance.
How can Nigeria reform her constitution to ensure efficient management of the political economy?
We have addressed the issue of political governance, and the second is economic governance. I’m puzzled why Nigeria allows international oil companies to own our oil wealth, which is a significant problem. I’m sure you understand the damage this causes us.
The federal government enters into production sharing contracts and joint venture agreements, effectively abdicating our natural resources to six or seven International Oil Companies (IOCs), which take away all the resources.
Consequently, we remain poor. I wonder why we can’t meet our financial needs while foreign companies do and take the money out. I believe we should adopt Saudi Arabia’s ARAMCO model, where they retain ownership of oil wells and instead offer service contracts based on expertise.
For instance, if you are a skilled driller, they’d hire you to drill without giving you the oil well. Unfortunately, in Nigeria, oil wells are sold, leading to loss of ownership and control over valuable resources. Instead of retaining revenue from Oil Mining Leases (OMLs), the funds are sent abroad, draining our economy and perpetuating poverty.
It is said that the current administration is too large and does not reflect the understanding that the government demands from the people?
We need to reduce the number of ministries. For instance, the Ministry of Information is entirely irrelevant, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which handles tasks like issuing marriage certificates, driver’s licenses, and prisons, is also unnecessary.
Currently, the federal government has only one notable prisoner, Nnamdi Kanu. However, the federal government allocates between 8 to 16 billion naira annually to maintain prisons it doesn’t own.
Lagos State potentially has the largest prison population, but since they don’t bear the costs, they don’t prioritise justice, leading to prolonged detentions. If Lagos State were responsible for maintaining its prisons, justice would likely be expedited.
Also, the federal government shouldn’t be involved in education; it’s a regional matter suited for states or local governments. While this isn’t the platform to detail everything that needs reform, I believe the federal government’s administrative structure could be streamlined to around 10 ministries.
This would cut maintenance costs by approximately 80 per cent, allowing funds to be redirected elsewhere. Failing to reduce expenses will inevitably lead to struggles. There’s a need for significant changes.
What specific strategies can African countries adopt to decouple from Western influence and assert their economic independence, similar to China’s approach?
The current international order, which we must thank Trump for, highlights the need for Africa to reassess its position. When we became decolonised, the Western world had already fixed the rules of the game. We don’t have a seat on the United Nations Security Council.
As you know, no African nation has a seat at the Security Council because we weren’t represented when the rules were made. When Trump began implementing trade tariffs, I’m not sure he understood the implications, but he’s now seeing it backfire.
The question is, what plan do African countries have to enter this space? China has a plan; they are decoupling from Western influence and working to make their currency as attractive as the dollar. What is our plan? I think this is something important to consider.
The reason President Trump is so interested in issues in Ukraine isn’t necessarily because he likes Ukraine, but because the world is shifting from traditional minerals to critical minerals.
The North Central zone of Nigeria is the fourth-largest in the world, containing critical minerals that could generate revenues of about $20 billion. However, nobody is taking action, and yet we claim to be poor.
Where do you think the country can focus on to boost its economy?
Let’s look at issues concerning generating income. In one of the fields that I have a specialty in, which is oil and gas, what happens is this: when Shell comes into Nigeria, it is given an oil well, they produce oil, but there are 34 value chains.
However, the Nigerian government only focuses on one (oil). But as for the others, they are being taken advantage of. The rigs have 10,000 expatriates on board, and every morning they go down to drill, load the oil onto vessels, store it, and discharge it to vessels that they name.
It’s our oil, and it should be the federal government naming the vessels that transport the oil globally for sale, but it’s the oil companies that are doing so. If we let them do that, how can we grow?
Also, take aviation, for instance, we need to have a ‘Fly Nigeria Act’, similar to what the Americans have. The Americans, especially diplomats, fly to Nigeria and then go to Togo, which has displaced us as the regional hub, and they hop onto their (Togo) aircraft because that’s where they can easily access American aircraft.
For every American public dollar, you must be on an American jet, a national carrier. That’s what we’re pushing, called the ‘Fly Nigeria Act’. We have the population and resources to grow our airlines. When we say ‘create jobs’, you don’t create jobs by just talking; you must look for opportunities. The opportunities for Nigeria to create jobs are there, and we need to see the government seize them so poverty can be reduced.
Those are the sorts of things I hope the government can do because, as you rightly pointed out, the suffering is great, and unless we have proactive solutions – not ones led by individuals like Natasha and Akpabio – unless our leaders focus on the issues, we will continue to be in this state.
I’m sure you pay rent; if you pay rent, you can pay a mortgage. The reason you don’t have a mortgage is that there’s no legal infrastructure. That’s the difference between the rent you pay and the mortgage you can get. Why isn’t the government making it convenient for Nigerians? That’s the kind of thinking I want to see.
What specific policies choices are available for the government to support the growth of a robust private sector in Nigeria?
While I’d rather not mention names to avoid politicising the issue, a particular point Peter Obi made resonates deeply: the need to shift from consumption to production. Unfortunately, our country isn’t moving in that direction.
President Tinubu should focus on nurturing an active private sector that drives production. Without robust industries and factories, breaking free from poverty is nearly impossible. The influx of cheap imports, particularly from China, has turned us into a dumping ground, stifling local growth. Aliko Dangote’s experience is a prime example. He once remarked that if he had known the challenges he’d face, he might have opted to import PMS instead of building a refinery. Instead of support from the NNPC, he encountered obstacles.
Under such circumstances, who would be willing to undertake similar ventures? The government needs to craft policies that genuinely support the private sector. It’s crucial for the government to define its role clearly: creating an enabling environment through sound policies, laws, and regulations while stepping back to let entrepreneurs lead. It’s hard to imagine a prime minister like Keir Starmer getting directly involved in business operations. The government’s role is to empower the private sector to create jobs, which in turn improves everyone’s lives.
Has the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), been of any positive impact on the economy?
The PIA Act is completely dead. For instance, just to give you one example, doesn’t the PIA say that Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) is a private company, yet NNPC is a regulator.
The government needs to hand off business because it doesn’t have the skills. If I were a lawyer and my secretary told me there were more clients than I could cope with, I would simply employ more lawyers.
What kind of country would say its problem is that it has too much money, like former general Yakubu Gowon said? The PIA Act is depriving us of revenue. One thing I need to point out is that the government needs to draw a line between what it can do efficiently.
Look at the Federal Executive Council (FEC). Its work is to announce contracts, not policy. Journalists should tell the government, ‘We want to hear policy; we don’t want to hear contracts.’ The FEC has become a contract-awarding body. The government should hand off business and allow the private sector to drive it.