If the political sensors available at present are not defective, the rumoured defection of former President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may be a hoax. The searchlight being beamed on him cannot be divorced from the recent gale of defections by some prominent Nigerian politicians, especially to the ruling party.
Saraki may not control many political office holders at present in his state, Kwara, but no living politician in the state has the kind of political structure he enjoys. He had actually inherited the structure from his late father, Olusola Saraki, who had a firm grip on the political structure of the state for more than three decades.
Many political observers in the state are asking: If Saraki should defect to the APC, would he be ready to be subservient to the leadership of Governor AbdulRahaman AbdulRazaq?
When contacted by The Guardian, many aides to Saraki vehemently denied the alleged defection plan. Besides, the antecedents of Saraki would not favour any discreet defection. When he announced his defection from the APC to the PDP some years ago, he did it after thorough consultations with his constituents.
According to the chairman of the PDP in Kwara State, Tunde Mohammed, who is a former Speaker of the state House of Assembly, “when Saraki decides, we are equally ready for him. But right now, I don’t think there is anything of sort on the table of our boss.”
Former chairman of the PDP in the state, Kola Shittu, also said: “It is apparent that whenever Saraki gets to any political party in Kwara, he would surely not play any second fiddle to anyone. He is a political colossus and his presence is a sure sign of victory, but at present, he has not discussed any plan of his so called defection with us. ”
Lending his voice, the APC Chairman in Kwara, Prince Sunday Fagbemi, said, “we had been hearing this for some time now but we don’t know how far it is true. ”
He added that, “if it is true, it is a welcome development; but you know those who are willing to come to your house must be ready to take instructions from the landowners.”
A former Commissioner for Education and an ex-member of Kwara State House of Assembly, Nimota Aduke Ibrahim, told The Guardian, “we have never heard of it at all. Defection? We are not in the picture of anything like that at all.”
Political observers believe that the incumbent governor and Saraki have parallel political ideologies, which would make it extremely difficult for them to work together.
According to an APC stalwart from Omupo in Ifelodun Local Council of the state, Mallam Abdurahoof Bello, the fusion will be like two gigantic rams struggling to drink from an earthen pot with an average opening.
Bello noted: “The governor will definitely have his successor in mind. Likewise Saraki will present his own candidate for the same position. This is just one out of the numerous positions they will both be interested in. So, who will break the deadlock? It will be tough and rough seeing the two of them at present within the same party in the state. ”
To the Chairman of Ifelodun Local Council of the state, Mr. Femi Yusuf, no one under the nation’s constitution has the moral justification to prevent anyone from joining the political party of his or her choice. He, however, noted that “the one defecting must do it at the level of his or her ward. No leapfrog issue when it comes to political structure.”
Should the rumour about Saraki joining the APC materialise, it will no doubt be a blessing to the party, as that would nail the coffin of a viable opposition in the state ahead of the 2027 general election.
An aide to Saraki, who pleaded anonymity, said: “A politician has no permanent friend or enemy. It is about what will benefit his people in Kwara State. He loves them so much that he doesn’t joke with issues that concern them. He didn’t tell us anything about the alleged planned defection. We should therefore not dissipate energies on a fallacy.”
Saraki had recently expressed shock over the defection of the PDP vice presidential candidate in the 2023 elections and former Governor of Delta State, Ifeanyi Okowa, to the ruling APC.
The PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, chose Okowa as his running mate in the 2023 elections. The decision had created a rift among the top echelon of the party. But in a surprise political move, Okowa, along with his successor, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, the Deputy Governor, Monday Onyeme, and other top Delta State government officials, defected from the PDP to the APC.
In his reaction to the move in a statement, Saraki stated that “it is unbecoming and shocking for the running mate to the standard bearer of a leading party to abandon ship to join the ruling party. ”
Noting that Okowa’s action was unprecedented, Saraki said that nobody should try to justify such an act. He noted that “it is simply a sign of how low we have sunk as democrats”, adding that the country was experiencing a collapse of leadership values. “These developments in the polity are the reason why I have always canvassed the idea that we should emphasise building and strengthening our institutions and not individuals,” he noted.
Saraki maintained that with the defection of the governor of Delta State, even if the party has only 10 governors in its fold, the PDP remains in a good position to win the next round of elections.
He assured supporters of the party that despite the defections in Delta State, he and other leaders would remain and reposition the party to be a formidable opposition.
He appealed to the party’s leaders who still want to leave the party to do so now so that those of them that want to remain could concentrate on rebuilding it.
“My view is that those who want to leave the PDP should leave now and let the rest of us who want to stay concentrate on rebuilding the party and refocusing it to play the role of a viable opposition that will provide a better alternative for the good people of Nigeria.
“I am convinced that it is important for all Nigerians to work for the sustenance of democracy. And to sustain democracy, there must be viable choices for people at every point. Also, there must be a viable opposition to keep people’s hope alive and create credible alternatives to keep the government on its toes.
“A one-party state as being disingenuously designed by some people will not augur well for a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, multi-cultural, multi-religious, and highly diversified society like ours. It is even more dangerous when we eliminate alternatives and make people hopeless.
“Therefore, it is in the interest of Nigeria and the survival of our democracy for the opposition to be vibrant and strong enough with the capacity to replace the ruling party at any point. Thus, my charge to our party members is that the PDP is merely experiencing a rebirth.
“Those who want to leave the party should go and let those of us remaining have a clear view of who we are talking to and where their political loyalty lies. All we need is for those who want to stay back in PDP to show commitment and we can all work to rebuild the party,” he said.
The ex-President of the Senate further appealed to PDP members nationwide to know that the sustenance of democracy is not a sprint but a marathon.
“It is not a knock-out football match series. It is a league. Twenty-four hours is a long time in politics and nobody can predict how the dynamics will evolve in the coming weeks and months.
“That is why PDP members across the country should not be discouraged, disillusioned, disappointed or demoralised by the development in Delta State. We should stay strong and focus on strengthening the party,” he added.
According to him, “it is not necessary at this point to lament why they left. Our party members should also refrain from blaming our woes on the ruling party. That would be a lazy approach. They are playing politics to win elections. It is our responsibility as party members to ignore their antics and seize the moment and momentum to make our party stronger and better.”
An Ilorin based social critic, Alhaji AbdulKareem Olola-Kasum, believes that the position of Saraki on the defection issue should be taken with a pinch of salt. Olola-Kasum said many politicians are filled with antics as “only God knows what is in them each time they speak.”
Although many of Saraki’s cronies declined to comment on the issue, deeper checks by The Guardian showed that the political stalwart may opt for a party where his political aspirations could be guaranteed.
According to Bello, who taught Political Science at the National Open University of Nigeria, (NOUN), Lagos campus, Saraki has risen to political stardom both within and outside the country, hence the need for him to align himself with a platform that will enable him achieve his political ambition.
His words: “He was a Special Assistant to former president Olusegun Obasanjo. He was a two term state governor and during this period, he occupied the position of the chairman of the Governors’ Forum. He used the position to attract so much attention to himself. To cap it all, his tenure as Senate President was marked with many positives as he ensured proper Separation of Powers, especially between the executive and legislative arms of government .
“Therefore, such a voice can’t be discarded in a political circle. He is aiming towards a better position as every normal politician would do. These will apparently be either the vice president or the president. He will therefore need a political platform that can provide him with either of the positions.”
A member of the PDP in Kwara State, Alhaji Abubakar Mogaji, also said: “I think he should just consider any national party that can guarantee him the slot and go for the position. He remains the most visible, competent and acceptable candidate in the North Central zone to run for Presidency come 2027. So, if there is any plan to defect as being alleged, I think this should be his first consideration.”
The followers of Saraki are patiently awaiting his next political move. But it will be either to stay with the PDP and reposition the party for the next election or to move out of it to realise his ambition met elsewhere.