With inflation surging to a record high of 33.80% in 2024, Nigeria enters 2025 at a pivotal juncture, marked by significant economic reforms aimed at reshaping its financial landscape – the economic rebasement.
As at February 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rebased the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to better reflect current consumption patterns. Consequently, the inflation rate for January 2025 was reported at 24.48% year-on-year, a decrease from December 2024’s rate of 34.80%.
This decline suggests that the positive impact of recent economic reforms, including the removal of subsidies and currency devaluation, is beginning to manifest.
The recent rebasing of Nigeria’s economy has reshaped the country’s economic landscape, offering a more accurate reflection of its size, structure, and growth dynamics. While the recalibration highlights the resilience of key sectors such as telecommunications, fintech, creative industries, and e-commerce, it also influences consumer spending patterns and corporate strategies in 2025.
Rebasing has revealed a more diversified economy, with previously underrepresented sectors envisioned to contribute significantly to GDP. This shift suggests a growing middle class with changing consumption habits, favouring digital services, financial inclusion, and local manufacturing. With higher disposable income and evolving consumer preferences, businesses must rethink their value propositions. So far, there has been an increase in naira valuation, with the currency matching its highest level in months, a stark contrast to the record lows seen in 2024
A recalibrated GDP often leads to increased investor confidence, as it provides a clearer picture of economic activity. This transparency can attract foreign direct investment (FDI), influencing capital markets, exchange rates, and monetary policies. For finance companies, the rebased GDP offers a more refined lens through which to assess market opportunities, risk exposure, and strategic expansion plans. The financial services sector, particularly non-bank finance institutions, stands to benefit significantly.
As consumer confidence grows, so will the demand for tailored financing solutions, including SME lending, asset-backed credit, life insurance, health coverage, and wealth management services. Similarly, financial institutions must anticipate shifts in credit demand, savings and investment patterns as businesses and consumers adjust their financial planning to align with the updated economic realities.
Consequently, organisations whether large corporations or SMEs are encouraged to realign their strategies to capitalize on emerging opportunities within the newly recognized sectors. Investing in technology, innovation, and expanding product lines to meet the evolving demands of consumers will be crucial. Moreover, with a more accurate economic assessment, businesses can make informed decisions regarding resource allocation, market expansion, and competitive positioning. With the updated GDP figures, businesses must refine their strategic outlook to align with Nigeria’s evolving economic structure. Here’s how organisations should respond in 2025:
Investment in Data and Consumer Insights
A more accurate economic picture means businesses can no longer rely on outdated assumptions about consumer behaviour. Organizations that invest in data analytics will be better positioned to understand evolving spending patterns, investment preferences and risk appetite. From retail lending and asset financing to wealth management, finance companies must harness real-time insights to tailor products and services to meet consumer expectations. For instance, flexible lending and microinsurance products can cater to Nigeria’s vast informal sector. Similarly, asset management firms can use data-driven insights to develop investment portfolios that align with the financial goals of Nigeria’s expanding middle class.
Expansion into High-Growth Sectors
The rebasing has underscored the growing significance of technology, renewable energy, entertainment, and the informal economy. Businesses that tap into these sectors will unlock new revenue streams and market opportunities. For example, structured financing for tech startups and green energy projects can drive innovation, while customized credit facilities for gig workers and small-scale manufacturers can support entrepreneurship and economic diversification. By strategically expanding into these sectors, finance companies can enhance financial inclusion while driving business growth.
Localized and Affordable Products
While the GDP rebase signals long-term economic expansion, inflationary pressures continue to affect purchasing power. Consumers remain highly price-sensitive, making accessible and flexible financial solutions essential for maintaining financial stability and encouraging economic participation.
Finance companies must focus on developing tailored financial products to meet these evolving needs. Affordable SME financing, such as low-interest working capital loans and revenue-based repayment structures, can support small businesses in maintaining operations and scaling effectively. Additionally, micro-loans designed for small business owners and self-employed individuals can provide the necessary capital to sustain and expand their ventures. Consumer-friendly investment options, such as flexible savings plans with inflation-adjusted returns, will help individuals protect and grow their wealth despite economic fluctuations. In addition, insurance firms must focus on affordable premium structures, such as pay-as-you-go health coverage, micro-pension schemes, and flexible life insurance plans designed for low-income earners.
Financial institutions can also consider localizing financial services – such as integrating vernacular-based financial literacy programs, which would give room for engagement and trust among diverse consumer segments. These efforts can bridge financial literacy gaps and encourage more people to participate in formal financial systems, ultimately driving financial inclusion and economic resilience.
Digital Transformation and Financial Inclusion
The rebased economy highlights the increasing importance of digital financial services, reinforcing the need for finance companies to accelerate their digital transformation. As consumer behaviors shift toward digital-first solutions, businesses must integrate mobile payments, AI-driven credit scoring, and digital-first lending strategies to enhance service delivery and accessibility.
For finance companies, this means automating loan origination and risk assessment using AI-powered analytics to improve efficiency and decision-making. Enhancing mobile-based lending will ensure greater access to credit for underserved populations, enabling financial empowerment for individuals and small businesses alike. Also, Banks and fintech companies should prioritize seamless digital banking experiences by ensuring financial products are accessible via mobile apps, USSD codes, and AI-powered chatbots. These innovations will not only enhance customer experience but also expand financial inclusion by making banking and financial services more accessible to a broader segment of the population.
As Nigeria moves into this new economic era, businesses that prioritize data-driven decision-making, sectoral expansion, and digital innovation will not only remain competitive but will also drive economic growth. The companies that adapt swiftly and strategically to these changes will define the future of commerce in Nigeria. Nigeria’s economic rebase paints an optimistic picture for 2025. While challenges remain, the recalibrated GDP highlights the country’s resilience and potential for long-term growth. Businesses that embrace innovation, data-driven strategies, and consumer-centric models will be well-positioned to thrive in the new economic reality.
Idechi Amucheazi is the Managing Director of Hallmark Finance Company Limited, a member of the Consolidated Hallmark Holdings Group.