Analysts have assessed Dangote Cement’s latest performance, highlighting its strong revenue growth, sector dominance, and potential challenges ahead.
The discussion, which took place on the podcast Drinks and Mics, featured Ugo Obi-Chukwu, CEO of Nairametrics; Samson Esemuede of Zrosk Capital; Tunji Andrew, CEO of Awabah; and Arnold Dublin Green of Cordros Capital.
Watch full analysis here:
Strong revenue performance
Ugo highlighted Dangote Cement’s impressive financial results, noting that the company recorded N3.5 trillion in revenue, surpassing MTNN’s N3.3 trillion.
While acknowledging this success, Samson expressed reservations about the broader cement sector, citing a fundamental issue with utilization rates.
“I don’t want to sound too pessimistic because what Dangote Cement has achieved over the decade is nothing short of phenomenal,” Samson stated.
However, he pointed out that despite a sector-wide capacity of 40 million metric tons (MT), Nigeria’s cement utilization stood at just 16 million MT, raising questions about why cement prices remain high despite excess capacity.
He attributed the persistently high cement prices to potential oligopolistic behavior within the industry.
Ugo agreed that this is a common perception but provided an alternative explanation.
According to him, a key reason for high cement prices is the ownership structure of Dangote Cement and BUA Cement, where Rabiu (BUA) and Aliko Dangote collectively control about 90% of Dangote Cement’s shares.
Additionally, Ugo noted that both companies are highly leveraged and engaged in other business ventures, which affects their debt repayment
Samson agrees with Ugo’s position and further anchors his pessimism on the acquisition of WAPCO by China’s Huaxin. He sees Huaxin’s entry into WAPCO (Lafarge Africa) as a potential disruptor, which could shake up the industry and impact pricing dynamics.
“With Huaxin’s entry, I don’t think the current pricing strategy will hold. If they ramp up capacity from 5 to 10 million MT, they might be willing to operate at EBITDA margins as low as 15%, they simply don’t care,” Samson explained.
Tunji inquired about the cement companies’ revenue composition, whether local or offshore. The consensus was that the bulk of revenue comes from the Nigerian market.
Samson added that cement is a highly regional product, meaning that market dominance is determined by localized production and logistics rather than national reach.
“My analysts have found that cement does not travel far due to high transportation costs. This is why Dangote and BUA dominate different regions, with clinker transport being the only exception,” Samson said.
However, he cautioned that the Chinese could disrupt the market by producing clinker at Lekki Port and expanding production elsewhere, a move that could reshape pricing dynamics in the industry.
Market outlook
Despite the potential threats, analysts acknowledged that Nigeria’s massive housing deficit provides strong long-term demand for cement.
“No matter the pricing, it’s unlikely to fully bridge Nigeria’s housing gap,” Samson remarked.
While Dangote Cement remains a dominant force, analysts warn that increasing competition and shifting market dynamics could pressure pricing strategies in the coming years.