The exit of Rauf Aregbesola’s group from the All Progressive Congress (APC) has unsettled the political dynamics ahead of the 2026 governorship election in Osun State. The attendant chances of an alternative party to the PDP-APC rivalry can also not be ignored, OLUWOLE IGE reports.
The ding dong over the festering internal crisis rocking the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Osun State, has reached a crescendo with the exit of Omoluabi Progressives group, led by the former governor of the state, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, from the party.
The unfolding political intrigues and brickbat may have set the stage for an epic battle ahead of the off season 2026 governorship election in the state.
The Omoluabi Progressives had in a statement issued by its organising and publicity secretary, Abosede Oluwaseun, stated that they took the decision because some of their leaders had been suspended and expelled from the party without fair hearing, and continuous denigration of the structure among others.
Aregbesola was quoted to have said during the meeting that, “I am indeed happy that all of you have spoken with one voice. It is not just one voice but a united front to lead the way to our collective victory in the journey ahead.
“I wish to remind you that the journey we are embarking on now is to further raise the level of prosperity of our dear state through responsible leadership. The path we have toed is a smooth path, highly reassuring and full of good tides that will propel our dear state to greatness. Therefore, you must show more commitment and attract genuine people who are ready to walk this path of righteousness with us.
“We are open to all regardless of political, religious, or socio-cultural leanings. We have the numbers, strength, and political acumen to provide a leadership that will make Osun the toast of its peers. By the grace of God, we shall succeed,” he said.
The squabbles within APC over the control of the party’s structure in Osun had polarised its rank and file between the mainstream of the opposition party under the control of the immediate past governor, who is also the current Minister for Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola and his predecessor, Aregbesola.
The battle led to the party’s dismal performance in the 2022 governorship election, won by the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
It is not yet clear if Aregbesola and his group will join forces with the PDP. His close allies worked for the victory of the party in 2022 and are enjoying political appointments in Adeleke’s government. The current Commissioner for Information and Public Enlightenment in the state, Kolapo Alimi, and former Commissioner of Finance, Dr Wale Bolorunduro, are part of Aregbeola’s aides working in PDP government. Bolorunduro is the current chairman, Living Trust Mortgage Bank Plc, owned by the Osun State government.
But investigation revealed that Aregbeola’s group had in 2024, begun political romance with the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). The state chairman of the party, Dr Tosin Odeyemi, led members of his executive to meet the immediate past Minister for Internal Affairs at his Ilesa country home. Since then, the relatively unknown party in the state has been bustling with political activities.
The Osun NNPP, which did not have a suitable state secretariat, now boasts of offices across the 33 local government headquarters, prompting speculation that Aregbesola’s group must have started financing the party.
In fact, immediately after Aregbesola dumped APC, Odeyemi openly wooed him to the NNPP, saying the party has all it takes to give him the platform to achieve his dreams for Osun people. He said: “Nobody can say Ogbeni Aregbesola is a political liability in Osun. He is an asset, no doubt about that. Even his former political family knows the truth. They are only shying away from it. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have been shouting around that he caused their downfall during the 2022 gubernatorial election.
“I am using this opportunity to appeal to Aregbesola to consider joining our great party, NNPP. Osun state is in the state of quagmire presently, we need a positive force to reclaim it. Having Aregbesola in Osun NNPP, no doubt will also boost the party’s chances during the 2027 general election in Nigeria,” Odeyemi said.
He continued: “Our ideas are the same. We all love to see the masses happy and living comfortably. We can do it together in Osun come 2026 and history will definitely be kind to us all. Therefore, with open arms, I wish to woo Ogbeni Aregbesola and his group to NNPP for a prosperous Osun.” However, Aregbesola’s exit from APC may have also closed several efforts being made by many Yoruba leaders to reconcile him and his leader, President Bola Tinubu.
The wedge between the duo started over the choice of APC flag bearer in the 2018 governorship election in the state. While Aregbesola rooted for the zoning of the party’s ticket to Osun West Senatorial District, Tinubu stood his ground for Oyetola, who eventually emerged as the candidate of the party and won the election.
But throughout his first term in office, Aregbesola’s group accused him of not extending political appointments and other privileges to his aides, which led to factionalisation of the party. Efforts to reconcile the factions failed. Oyetola’s faction won the legal battle but lost his re-election bid because Aregbesola’s group teamed up with the PDP to give victory to Adeleke.
With their exit from APC, Aregbesola’s group has decided to take their destiny in their own hands. Instead of playing anti-party activities in APC, they will field candidates for the 2026 governorship election.
It was gathered that former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Chief Moshood Adeoti, will lead other aspirants to vie for the governorship ticket of the yet to be disclosed party. Adeoti contested against Adeleke in 2018 and lost. He was the pioneer chairman of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the state.
If he wins the ticket, he will slug it out with the incumbent Governor Adeleke, who is already planning to re-contest and fly PDP’s flag in the forthcoming election.
However, there are strong indications that Oyetola may have given up his ambition to seek a re-election. Sources within the party said the minister has directed his supporters to support the gubernatorial ambition of the Managing Director/CEO of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), Bola Oyebamiji.
Oyebamiji, who was Oyetola’s Commissioner for Finance hails from Ikire, in Osun West Senatorial District.Other contenders angling for APC ticket include the national secretary of the party, Senator Ajibola Basiru, Senator Jide Omoworare, and Olalekan Badmus, who is the Executive Director of Marine Operations, Nigerian Port Authority (NPA), and former Commissioner for Special Duties in the state.
Speaking on the exit of Aregbesola’s group and implications on the chances of APC ahead 2026 poll, ex-Commissioner for Information and Strategy in the state, Mr Sunday Akere, said the development would not whittle down the electoral value and prospects of the opposition party.
He said: “Their presence has been hampering the progress of APC in the state. They constituted distraction and deceit to the average party members who think they are still loyal and committed while acting otherwise. It’s a fact that over 50 per cent of those hobnobbing with them, through deceit, will not follow them to the PDP or any party they are headed.”
He said APC is still open to reconciliation for anybody who repented and returned but the exit of the group will not affect the chance of the party winning the next governorship election in the state.
But, the spokesperson of Aregbesola’s group, Abosede Oluwaseun, disagreed with Akere, contending that anyone or political party that underrates the political strength and influence of Aregbesola in Osun does so at their own peril.
He maintained that the exit of the group from APC will further push the party into the abyss of political obscurity. He said: “We are now the force to reckon with in the political space in Osun State here. Ignore Rauf Aregbesola political school of thoughts at your own peril. It’s no longer about PDP or APC, it’s about the movement coming onboard that cannot be stopped.”
Reacting to insinuations that Aregbesola’s group may merge with another political party or float a new party, he disclosed that “it’s going to be a merger like the APC. We will be working together with other people across the country.
“As it is now, we have over 100,000 members across the 332 wards in Osun. And looking at who is who in the state politics, I can boldly say they are on our side,” Oluwaseun said.
While declaring that the decision of the group to exit APC will not lead its leaders and members into political oblivion, he argued that “even the APC had gone into political oblivion in the state before our exit. The party is currently on sabbatical in Osun.
“Remember they lost all political seats in the state. The party has only one member at the state House of Assembly. Back then while we were still in The Osun Progressives (TOP), APC leadership claimed we are inconsequential and that they can win without our inputs. So, coming out of the party is for us to contest and win political offices. Aregbesola’s tendency is a formidable force in Osun politics. We are optimistic that we will win in the coming poll.”
But APC stalwart in the state, LiadiTella, said APC will be better off now as Aregbesola and his group has left the party. He said that whatever would happen to APC in 2026 is a conjecture of the minds of people, noting that “It cannot be worse than what happened in 2022. The situation is dicey now for both APC and PDP. People are getting wiser every day.
“I won’t reveal the strategy of our party to attain power on the pages of newspapers but many will be stunned by the results of votes in 2026. It is not just optimism of the air, but optimism of possible reality. The crowd that follows Aregbesola is a matter of time. There’s already a merger between his group and PDP.
“All the grandstanding of Omoluabi Progressives was to create electoral problems for the APC, and we have learnt our lessons. Our chances are bright in APC because many people are joining our party. How many big fish have you seen crossing from APC to PDP?
“It’s like a dance in the forest. Who are the spectators? Time will tell. Many people are overrating Aregbesola beyond his political capacity.”