The local currency exceeded the N1160 threshold against the US dollar despite a significant decline in the dollar index during the week’s last trading session.
The naira was worth as much as N1670 against the haven currency on the black market in major Nigerian cities.
Market fundamentals attribute this moderation to seasonality.
The Nigerian upper class usually travels during this time of year or must pay for their children’s education abroad.
The naira gained 4.8% on Wednesday after the government successfully raised $900 million in its first domestic dollar bond; however, this gain was reversed. A dollar shortage was cited as the reason for the 48% decline in domestic dollar liquidity.
President Bola Tinubu removed regulations last year that kept the currency artificially overvalued in the hopes of attracting foreign investment. However, the currency has lost more than two-thirds of its value relative to the dollar.
According to a CBN poll, Nigerian firms anticipate that the naira will fall between now and December but will strengthen the following year. Additionally, the local currency’s present situation defies forecasts from institutions like Renaissance Capital, Goldman Sachs, and the Financial Derivative Company, which had predicted that the naira would settle at N1000 or less.
U.S. Dollar Index Sinks Lower in Friday’s Trading Session
The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of major currencies, was down on Friday as markets continued to digest this week’s inflation data. By the end of the week, there was a slight increase in expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points during its meeting the following week.
Technical indicators for the DXY index are now negative and have begun to decline once more. Notably, the index crossed below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and above the 101.2 support line, indicating a shift in momentum to the negative.
The Federal Reserve may announce a significant 50 basis point interest rate decrease at its policy meeting next week, according to media sources. This expectation caused the value of the US dollar to plummet on Friday to its lowest position in almost nine months against the Japanese yen. Market expectations shifted due to remarks made by a former Fed official advocating for an aggressive cut and reports suggesting that a 50-basis point rate decrease is still possible.
The likelihood of a 50-bp easing by the Fed at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday is priced into the U.S. rate futures market at 51%, up from roughly 15% early on Thursday. Additionally, futures traders have increased their 2024 cut projections from 107 bps to 117 bps.
The greenback recovered some of its losses after data showed that consumer confidence in the United States increased in September despite declining inflation. The University of Michigan’s preliminary estimate of the overall consumer sentiment index for this month was 69.0, up from the final reading of 67.9 in August. Economists surveyed by Reuters had projected an initial score of 68.5.
U.S. economic statistics released this week indicated that the measure of consumer price inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—rose more than expected in August, suggesting that a standard 25-bp decrease is likely next week. However, on Friday, Bill Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, fueled additional speculation about a possible 50 basis point drop in interest rates. He noted that rates were currently 150–200 basis points above the so-called neutral rate, which is the threshold at which policy is neither accommodating nor restrictive for the US economy, and added that there was a strong case for lowering them.