UFC Fight Night hits the APEX Center in Las Vegas this evening.
Vice President of Talent Relations Mick Maynard tweeted his dissatisfaction with the negativity of UFC fans who think this year’s Fight Night cards have been subpar.
But at the end of the day, especially once the NBA and NHL wrap their seasons up, we are going to count our blessings for the UFC Vegas cards from the APEX.
So let’s get into the betting action for tonight’s card, which will feature 13 fights and plenty of exciting moments throughout.
This entire card will be broadcasted on ESPN at 6 p.m. Eastern. with the prelims and the main card kicking off at around 9 p.m. ET.
UFC Fight Night picks and predictions
Kai Kara-France vs. Amir Albazi
Could this be too much, too soon for Albazi?
The rising star looks to jump into Saturday, pushing the pace with his grappling, and does have some clean striking at his disposal.
But he is facing one of the best fighters in the bantamweight division in Kai-Kara France.
France defends takedowns at an excellent 87 percent clip and has extremely dangerous strikes that should keep Albazi leary from wildly shooting in.
Albazi hasn’t really been touched yet in the UFC, but expect that to change this weekend.
We don’t know nearly enough to say he should be even money with France this evening, and that’s where your money should be going.
France is a known commodity and worth betting at over 2.5 rounds on PointsBet (+128).
Don’Tale Mayes vs. Andrei Arlovski
Don’Tale Mayes is such a tough guy to bet on these days.
His fight IQ is nearly non-existent, he doesn’t listen to the game plan his coaches set out for him and his gas tank is a major worry.
Arlovski is an older guy, but will win the most striking exchanges from a technical perspective.
His path to victory is to keep the fight standing and grind out a decision, as he has done many times.
Mayes shouldn’t be favored against UFC-caliber fighters; Arlovski is still that.
Back this one to go the distance at -152 on FanDuel and Arlovski by decision +200 on Bet365.
Jinh Yu Frey vs. Elise Reed
Elise Reed is 30 years old now and has only been favored once in five fights in the UFC (a loss to Sam Hughes).
She’s favored here against 38-year-old Jinh Yu Frey, who should be the cleaner boxer this evening.
An issue with Reed is her takedown defense, which has failed her so many times in the past.
Frey doesn’t grapple much, but pretty much any fighter that wants to take her down should have that option available.
Frey is worth targeting on the moneyline at +115 at Caesars Sportsbook.
UFC Fight Night prop pick
- John Castaneda by submission +850 (BetRivers) | by submission in rounds two or three +1700 (FanDuel)
Castaneda’s submission abilities are being underrated here against Muin Gaferov.
Castaneda has six of his 19 wins by submission, including three of his last four finishes.
He won’t be doing any offensive wrestling in this one; look for Gaferov to take care of getting this one to the mat.
But watch out for that neck when shooting for double or single legs, Castaneda is dangerous.