Here’s What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The quarterly results for Francotyp-Postalia Holding AG (ETR:FPH) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were €64m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €0.15, an impressive 36% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Francotyp-Postalia Holding after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Francotyp-Postalia Holding

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Taking into account the latest results, Francotyp-Postalia Holding’s three analysts currently expect revenues in 2023 to be €253.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 171% to €0.44. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €254.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.49 in 2023. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they’ve also lifted the consensus price target 5.8% to €6.07, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company’s valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Francotyp-Postalia Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €6.60 and the most bearish at €5.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business’ future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 2.3% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 2.2% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining – Francotyp-Postalia Holding is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Francotyp-Postalia Holding. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn’t be too quick to come to a conclusion on Francotyp-Postalia Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year’s profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Francotyp-Postalia Holding going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Francotyp-Postalia Holding that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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