NFL Draft 2023 Odds: Who will the Dallas Cowboys draft with their first-round pick?

Coinciding with the rise of legal sports betting in the U.S., the NFL Draft has evolved into one of the more entertaining weekends of the year now that fans and bettors alike can wager on an endless selection of prop bets and futures. From betting on who will be the draft’s first overall pick to what specific position group your favorite team will draft in the first round, there are numerous ways to get action down on the 2023 NFL Draft to make the three-day event a bit more intriguing.

Unlike making an informed spread bet on a given Sunday, NFL Draft betting is all information based. Finding out a team’s specific needs based on last season’s weaknesses and off-season moves is a good starting point for extracting potential value from the betting market. 

The Cowboys are one of the league’s most polarizing franchises, and entering the 2023 NFL Draft, they’ll be looking to upgrade several position groups. After an impressive 31-14 rout over the Buccaneers in Tom Brady’s final NFL game (we think), turnovers plagued them in a 19-12 Divisional Round loss to the 49ers.

Although Dallas hasn’t appeared in a Super Bowl since 1995 after a slew of unfortunate playoff losses, the Cowboys are routinely in the conversation to make noise in the playoffs. All it takes is one magical run to rid Cowboy fans of their nearly two-decade headache and return to the game’s highest stage. 

As a new season dawns, Cowboy fans should be hopeful their team has what it takes to push through and win a couple of playoff games to make it back to the big game. This offseason, Dallas most notably traded for two impactful veterans in wideout Brandin Cooks and cornerback Stephon Gilmore but parted ways with running back Ezekiel Elliott and tight end Dalton Schultz. 

Which position group will the Cowboys target with the 26th overall pick in the 2023 draft? Let’s look at DraftKings Sportsbook’s updated odds on the position of the team’s first drafted player.

Dallas Cowboys 2023 NFL Draft Specials: Position of team’s first drafted player

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook 

Tight End+175
Defensive Lineman/EDGE+275
Offensive Lineman+275
Running Back+425
Wide Receiver+1000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper+20000

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, it appears as if Dallas is looking to replace Schultz by selecting a tight end with their first pick (+175). Going this route could be a wise move considering this year’s class of tight ends looks like one of the stronger classes in recent memory. Additionally, the Cowboys’ cast of receivers is a bit underwhelming at the moment despite having Pro Bowlers CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks outside, so getting another stable pass-catcher to make life easier on Dak Prescott seems logical.

Chances are, Dallas won’t land the draft’s projected top-TE Michael Mayer at pick No. 26, but they could end up with Utah TE Dalton Kincaid, whom many peg as the draft’s second-best tight end. In Kincaid’s final season at Utah, he recorded 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns, helping the Utes claim the Pac-12 Championship with a 47-24 win over USC.

New offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer would love to have a shiny-new tight end to build his offense around, as Kincaid’s impressive pass-catching abilities should make for a seamless transition to the next level.

If the Cowboys don’t select a tight end with their first draft pick, they could look to bolster either their offensive or defensive line, with both units coming in with +275 price tags. It never hurts to have another elite pass rusher or interior lineman to pair with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, and the same goes for adding another stable offensive lineman like Georgia’s Broderick Jones or Tennessee’s Darnell Wright. LSU DE BJ Ojulari, Georgia DE Nolan Smith, and Michigan DL Mazi Smith are likely still on the board at pick 26, making them appealing selections, as well.

Even though Elliott is no longer a Cowboy, it’s tough to think Jerry Jones and company shell out another first-round pick on a running back (+475) with Tony Pollard expected to receive the lion’s share of the backfield duties in 2023. There’s a reason why drafting a running back comes in with the third-best odds, though, as there’s a chance Texas RB Bijan Robinson is still on the board here. Pollard is on a one-year franchise tag, so there is some merit to Dallas selecting another RB in the first. If Robinson were to fall to 26, we could see Dallas drafting him, but chances are Robinson ends up elsewhere.

It’s also unlikely they select a wide receiver (+1000), safety (+1200), linebacker (+2500), or corner (+3000) unless a player they rate highly on their draft board slips significantly. There’s enough talent in this year’s wide receiver class to wait until day two, and Gilmore’s addition puts less pressure on the Cowboys’ front office to draft a defensive back in the first round. Dallas also has a solid cast of linebackers, so a 30-1 price on drafting a linebacker feels justified.

Betting advice: Although the odds point toward Dallas selecting a tight end (+175), we’d lean towards the Cowboys bolstering their defensive line/ EDGE (+275). Teams can never have enough pass rushers and run stuffers, so we think there’s a chance Ojulari, Nolan Smith, or Mazi Smith end up as a Cowboy.