When Gov. Gavin Newsom announced last week that he would form a new political action committee to take a stand against “rising authoritarianism” and regressive Republican policies, he berated Red State leaders for banning books, targeting trans children taken and fueled racism.
Photos of former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders flashed onto the screen in a video created to rally support for his organization Campaign for Democracy.
Newsom also used the video to make a handful of broad statements about red states, claiming that they have higher crime rates, poorer health outcomes, and weaker economies than blue states.
We looked at these claims. For context, we defined blue states as those that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 and red states as those that voted for Trump.
Claim: Blue states have lower homicide rates
Rating: Mostly true
Details:
More people are murdered per capita in red states than in blue states.
Blue states have less than half the average homicide rate, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2020, Blue States had 6 homicides per 100,000 residents. The red-state rate was 14 per 100,000, CDC data shows.
The seven states with the highest homicide rates are all red: Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Three blue states – Maryland, Illinois and New Mexico – round out the top 10.
Meanwhile, eight of the 10 states with the lowest homicide rates in the country are blue.
Still, some red states are bucking the trend. Idaho and Utah, both of which voted for Trump in 2020, maintain two of the six lowest homicide rates, both below 3 per 100,000. That’s far less than Mississippi’s 20 in 100,000.
California, at 6.1 homicides per 100,000, is on par with the average homicide rate for blue states.
Claim: Blue states have better health outcomes
Rating: Mostly true
Details:
According to a recent analysis by Forbes Advisor, people living in blue states are, on average, twice as healthy as people in red states.
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Forbes Advisor analyzed state data from the CDC and the Kaiser Family Foundation into three categories. These indicators included disease prevalence and mortality rates, substance abuse, lifestyle habits, and the percentage of adults who smoke or are obese.
Based on these factors, the nation’s 10 unhealthiest states were all red, according to Forbes Advisors: West Virginia, Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Ohio.
For example, more people die from cancer per capita in red states than in blue states.
Of the 10 healthiest states, nine were blue: Hawaii, Minnesota, California, Massachusetts, Colorado, Washington, Connecticut, New York and New Jersey.
Utah was the red runaway listed as the second healthiest state in the nation. According to the report, Utah residents have the lowest rates of chronic disease and disease mortality.
Claim: Blue states have higher GDP
Rating: Misleading
Details:
The five states with the highest GDPs in the country — California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas — are a mix of blue and red. According to the latest data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, blue states have larger economies, on average, by value.
But in terms of recent economic growth, the red states lead the nation.
California’s economy – poised to become the world’s fourth-largest – is growing at a slower pace than many comparable red states.
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the latest available data, the state’s economy grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2.4%, slightly below the national rate of 2.6%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Texas growth led the nation at 7%. Florida’s economy grew 3.7%. North Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma and West Virginia and Alabama each grew at least 3%.
The numbers don’t necessarily mean that people are leaving densely populated states with higher taxes and fleeing to less populated areas with lower taxes. Farming, fishing, hunting, and forestry collapsed, causing economies in red South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska to shrink.
However, California lags behind many other red states. The unemployment rate was consistently higher than the national average. In February it was 4.3%; the national rate was 3.6%. Texas’ was 4%, but many red states were below the national average. Florida’s was 2.6%.
The lowest February unemployment rates were recorded in red North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Montana and Utah. Each was 2.4% or less.
California’s slower economic growth was largely due to the tourism industry, which has not yet fully recovered from the Covid pandemic. The country’s leisure and hospitality workforce in February remained slightly below pre-pandemic levels of three years ago.
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