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Mortgage and Refinancing Rates, December 5

Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates increased last Friday. But they fell significantly throughout the past week.

This morning, the markets indicated that mortgage rates today could rise modestly. But the momentum was weak and things could change later in the day.

Current Mortgage and Refinance Rates

ProgramMortgage interest rateAPR*Change
Conventional 30 years fixed6,399%6,428%Unchanged
Conventional 15 years fixed5,572%5.6%Unchanged
Conventional 20 years fixed6,043%6,089%Unchanged
Conventional 10 years fixed5,777%5,869%Unchanged
30 year fixed FHA6,095%6,917%Unchanged
15 year fixed FHA5,718%6,241%Unchanged
30 year fixed VA6.03%6,262%Unchanged
VA fixed for 15 years6,072%6,429%Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a custom rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

Don’t block a day when mortgage rates appear to be falling. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the general direction of those rates. Therefore, they do not change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Unfortunately, I am one of many in the mortgage industry who believes that mortgage rates are more likely to go up than down in the coming weeks.

Therefore, my personal long-term rate lock recommendations should stand for now:

  • TO CLOSE if it closes 7 days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes fifteen days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes 30 days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes Four. Five days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to Get the Best Refinance Rate

Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of the game this morning around 9:50am ET. The data, compared to roughly the same time last Friday, were:

  • the yield on 10-year treasury notes it fell to 3.57% from 3.60%. (Good for mortgage rates.) However, those returns were rising this morning. More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury yields.
  • Important stock indices they were lower shortly after the open. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, pushing those prices down and increasing yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can occur when the indices are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship.
  • oil prices it rose to $82.15 from $81.71 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Prayed prices rose to $1,800 from $1,796 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Generally, it is better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed Index — went up to 69 out of 63 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors they push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they exit the bond market and move into stocks, while “scared” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones.

*A movement of less than $20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a change of 1% or less. Therefore, we only consider significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Market and Rate Warnings

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And they are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous high levels until things calm down.

Therefore, use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to trust them. But with that caveat, mortgage rates today seem likely to rise. However, keep in mind that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is good and down when there are problems. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care
  2. Only “Tier One” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements, although they all tend to follow the broader trend over time.
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same.
  5. Refinance rates are often close to purchase rates.

A lot is happening right now. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the next few hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates going up or down?

Hopefully this week could be quiet for mortgage rates. There are certainly no economic reports on the calendar that are likely to take them far.

There were a couple of purchasing managers’ indices this morning that have not had a noticeable effect so far. And Friday’s producer price index (PPI) rarely causes waves. That being said, the PPI is an indicator of future inflation. And that’s the hottest topic right now. Therefore, it might be unwise to rule it out yet.

Yesterday, OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus a Russian-led producer group) said it would continue to curb oil production. That’s bad news for Western nations, which had been hoping for a bigger flow to make up for the lack of availability of many of Russia’s sanctioned products.

It is not yet clear how much impact the OPEC+ announcement will have on oil prices. But keep an eye on them.

For more information, read the latest weekend edition of this report. It includes my reasons for thinking that mortgage rates could go up again soon.

According to the Freddie Mac files, the weekly record low for mortgage rates was set on January 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie’s December 1st report put that same weekly average at 6.49%, down from 6.58% of the previous week.

Freddie recently stopped including discount points in his forecasts. He has also moved the time he publishes his Thursday reports later in the day. Y, from now on we will be updating this section on Fridays.

Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasts

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.

And here are your rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/22) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23 and Q3/24).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s forecast appeared on November 22, MBA’s on November 23, and Freddie’s on October 21. Freddie now publishes his forecasts on a quarterly basis and his numbers can quickly become outdated.

ForecasterQ4/22Q1/23T2/23T3/23
fanny mae7.0%7.0% 6.9%6.7%
freddy mac6.8%6.6% 6.5%6.4%
Masters of Business Administration6.7%6.2% 5.6%5.4%

Of course, given the number of unknowables, the entire current crop of forecasts could be even more speculative than usual. And his previous record for accuracy hasn’t been very impressive.

Find your lowest rate today

You should shop around regardless of the type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter interest point on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each type of loan to display on our chart. Because we average a variety of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you can find in the market. Plus, we average rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.