Understand with example what happened?
Let’s start talking from Gujarat. Take the example of Dariapur for this. This is a Muslim majority seat. The Congress had been winning this seat for 10 years. The Congress had fielded Ghiyasuddin Shaikh from this seat. However, he lost to Kaushik Jain of BJP. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had also fielded its candidates in at least 16 Muslim dominated areas of Gujarat. But, no one was able to register a victory. Now we understand the damage caused by AAP’s entry into the fray. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM split Muslim votes with AAP. That is, the votes which traditionally went to the Congress earlier got divided among the three parties. AAP, AIMIM and Congress. In this way the meaning of the Muslim vote is no more. AIMIM fielded its candidates mostly in places where the density of Muslim population is high. Whether he did anything or not, he definitely cut votes.
Muslims have more options, power divided
The biggest strength of Muslim voters has ended today. This was the power of outright vote. The options have increased with the Muslims. But the power has decreased. Traditionally, Muslims used to vote for a single party. This voting was often ‘tactical’. Wherever these voters used to turn, the same party used to shine. But, it doesn’t seem to be happening now. Can say that they are confused. Muslim voters are not able to choose between Congress, AAP, AIMIM. When these three stand against the BJP, the vote of the Muslims gets split. This reduces the effectiveness of the vote of the Muslim voter. This factor is very important if BJP wins in Rampur along with Muslim dominated areas of Delhi, Gujarat.
No party is able to win the trust of Muslim voters.
There is another reason for the confusion of the Muslim voters. No party is able to win his trust. Leaving AIMIM, Congress, Samajwadi Party and AAP all raise the issues of soft Hindutva. Their leaders are seen worshiping in temples and performing Havan in homes. Hindu identity is also attached to them. In other words, they never seem to completely distance themselves from the Hindu voters. This makes it difficult for Muslims to choose between one and the other.
Dalit voters have shifted towards BJP
BJP’s strength is the consolidation of Hindu votes. The saffron party has been completely successful in this. Let us take the example of Rampur to understand here. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) used to be a major force here once. But, it gradually got weaker. The entire vote of the party shifted towards BJP. It ended the relevance of the Muslim vote. At the same time, BJP has given full strength for this vote bank. During this, the saffron party also won the large OBC section in its court. BJP is hoisting the flag of victory even in Muslim dominated areas, so this has become a major reason behind it.
What is the status of Muslim vote?
The truth is that today the status of Muslim vote is neither to make anyone win nor to defeat anyone. The reason for this is that there is no clarity in it. He is involved in many political parties. The second big thing is that Muslim women have also started voting for BJP on many issues. These include issues like triple talaq. Women constitute half of the country’s population. They cannot be underestimated in any way. Realizing this, the Congress had placed a big bet on women in UP. He had given 40 percent tickets to women in the UP elections by giving the slogan ‘Ladki Hoon Lad Sakti Hoon’. BJP has been successful in pulling the votes of Muslim women to some extent.