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RMS: Less than $2 billion in insured losses from Hurricane Nicole

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Catastrophe modeller RMS said private market insured losses from Hurricane Nicole are estimated to be less than $2 billion, with a best estimate of $1.6 billion.

This estimate represents insured losses associated with wind, storm surge and precipitation-induced flooding. Losses reflect property damage and business interruption in residential, commercial, industrial and automotive sectors, and take into account post-event loss amplification (PLA) sources, inflation trends and unmodeled sources of loss.

Based on an analysis of the RMS model, RMS said wind and storm surge losses will be between $1.2 billion and $1.8 billion from Nicole, the 14th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and the second to coming ashore this season.

In addition, RMS said losses to Nicole’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) will be less than $300 million, and primarily in Florida and Georgia.

“While Hurricane Nicole was much less intense than Hurricane Ian a few weeks earlier, it showed a large wind field that affected many of the same areas in Florida,” said Jeff Waters, staff product manager, North Atlantic Hurricane Models, RMS.

“RMS Event Response teams estimate that approximately 98% of Florida zip codes affected by Nicole have previously been affected by Hurricane Ian,” he added. “As with other overlapping events from previous seasons, such as Hurricanes Ida and Nicholas in 2021, and Laura and Delta in 2020, we expect the overlapping nature of Hurricane Ian and Nicole to introduce significant uncertainties into the damage attribution and settlement process. .”

Sarah Hartley, event response manager at RMS, said a storm like Nicole’s would not normally have a significant PLA impact, but since it happened right after Hurricane Ian, “the same factors that affect Ian’s PLA are also applies to Nicole, including a shortage of labor, materials and claims adjusters. This is an example of composite PLA effects.”

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.

Photo: Homes in Wilbur-By-The-Sea, Florida, have been damaged and collapsed after the shoreline they stood on was wiped out due to the passage of Hurricane Nicole. (UKTN Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

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